UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
Miami, USA
8 Apr 2023
Welterweight
VS
53%
Burns
47%
Masvidal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Gilbert
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
22 – 10
5'10"71" reachOrthodox39 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 40
JM
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
35 – 17
Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Burns

This is a genuine toss-up — Burns at 53% vs Masvidal at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Masvidal throws more volume but Burns connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Burns's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Masvidal has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Burns
Masvidal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+74"
39+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burns
Masvidal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.8
35.2
48.1
Performance Avg
47.0
40
Quality of Victory
42
28
Momentum Score
43
Burns
Masvidal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
49%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
8
0
Body
3
1
Leg
8
RangeRange
20Distance19
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Burns
Masvidal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Burns
Masvidal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
60
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/32 fights
Chin rating based on
22/52 fights
Burns
Masvidal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
43
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
Burns
Masvidal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
5
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Burns
Masvidal
Striking3.2 / 5.3Volume4.9 / 4.4Grappling3.8 / 1.7Wrestling2.6 / 1.2Submission3.3 / 0.8Pressure5.5 / 5.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
Burns
Strike Zones
Masvidal
Burns
Attacking
21HEAD0BODY1LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD3BODY8LEGS19 absorbed
Masvidal
Attacking
8HEAD3BODY8LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD0BODY1LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Burns targets the head (95% of attacks) — Masvidal absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Masvidal targets the head (42% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 42% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Burns
RND
Masvidal
0/0R00/0

Burns · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.2W5.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L5.2W5.2W2.4L4.5W6.4W4.5W5.6W5.0W4.5W3.9L5.1W7.4L5.6W4.5W6.6L5.5L6.6L3.6L4.5L2014-072018-042020-052024-032026-04
WinLossTrend

Masvidal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.6W6.0W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L6.1L5.1W5.0W4.3W6.6L3.2L6.8L5.7L2013-042015-042017-012020-072023-04
WinLossTrend

Burns · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

Masvidal · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Kamaru UsmanRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · R3
Nate DiazRating 4.3
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11

News & Media

Gilbert Burns · Jorge Masvidal
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