METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
Miami, USA
8 Apr 2023
Welterweight
VS
53%
Burns
47%
Masvidal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Gilbert BurnswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jorge Masvidal · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Burns
→
Actual result
Burns wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Burns at 53% vs Masvidal at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Masvidal throws more volume but Burns connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Burns's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Masvidal has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BurnsMasvidal
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Burns
Masvidal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+74"
40+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burns
Masvidal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.8
35.2
48.1
Performance Avg
47.0
40
Quality of Victory
42
28
Momentum Score
43
Burns
Masvidal
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
1.2
49%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
8
0
Body
3
1
Leg
8
RangeRange
20Distance19
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Burns
Masvidal
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Burns
Masvidal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
60
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/32 fights
Chin rating based on
22/52 fights
Burns
Masvidal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
43
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
Burns
Masvidal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
5
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Burns
Masvidal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
BurnsMasvidal
Strike Zones
Burns
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedMasvidal
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Burns targets the head (95% of attacks) — Masvidal absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Masvidal targets the head (42% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 42% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Burns
RND
Masvidal
0/0R00/0
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Masvidal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Burns · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
Masvidal · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Kamaru UsmanRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · R3
Nate DiazRating 4.3UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11