METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
The perfect record meets the last great dream — Topuria's coronation or Gaethje's crowning moment on the White House lawn
The most theatrical setting in UFC history — the South Lawn of the White House — hosts what may also be the most consequential lightweight title fight in years. Ilia Topuria, 27 and undefeated at 17-0, has finished 15 of 17 opponents and dismantled Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira on his way to undisputed lightweight gold. Justin Gaethje, 37, won the interim belt by outlast…
Topuria (17-0, CFR 82.3) is operating at the peak of his powers. He has not been seriously hurt in three years and his finishing rate of 15/17 makes him one of the most dangerous champions in the lightweight division's history.
Gaethje (27-5, CFR 66.1) is 37 and motivated by the knowledge that UFC gold has always just slipped past him. Won interim title over Pimblett via UD in January. His chin remains excellent but his gas tank in the championship rounds has occasionally wavered.
Can Gaethje land a big right hand before Topuria finds his range?
Topuria's body attack — Gaethje has historically absorbed liver shots poorly
Heat and outdoor conditions may affect pace in rounds 3-5
Topuria's finishing instinct — he accelerates when sensing hurt
Gaethje's single-shot KO power means one clean shot ends it regardless of CFR
Outdoor conditions and unusual pre-fight atmosphere could disrupt preparation
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown