UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises
Las Vegas, USA
17 Jul 2021
Lightweight
VS
44%
Stephens
56%
Gamrot
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:05
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
5'9"71" reachOrthodox40 yrs7-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Mateusz
Mateusz Gamrot
"Gamer"
26 – 4
Well-Rounded35 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'10"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gamrot

This is a genuine toss-up — Stephens at 44% vs Gamrot at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Stephens throws more volume but Gamrot connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Stephens's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Stephens
Gamrot
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
71"+
Reach
70"
40
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Stephens
Gamrot
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.0
57.0
41.1
Performance Avg
52.9
40
Quality of Victory
42
76
Momentum Score
66
Stephens
Gamrot
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
42%
Strike Accuracy
51%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
7 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Stephens
Gamrot
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stephens
Gamrot
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
82
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/52 fights
Chin rating based on
13/30 fights
Stephens
Gamrot
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
66
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Stephens
Gamrot
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
56%
7
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stephens
Gamrot
Striking5.5 / 4.7Volume4.6 / 4.9Grappling1.1 / 2.8Wrestling0.8 / 2.0Submission0.0 / 2.2Pressure4.5 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Stephens
Strike Zones
Gamrot
Stephens
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Gamrot
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gamrot targets the head (100% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stephens
RND
Gamrot
0/0R00/0

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Gamrot · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.6L5.2W5.5W6.3W6.1W6.5L5.7W6.1W4.7W6.4L5.7W3.5L5.9W2020-102022-062024-032026-04
WinLossTrend

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

Gamrot · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Esteban RibovicsRating 5.9
Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Sub · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 3.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Dan HookerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03

News & Media

Jeremy Stephens · Mateusz Gamrot
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