UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
Nashville, USA
23 Mar 2019
Featherweight
VS
95%
Mitchell
5%
Moffett
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mitchell
Mitchell is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 53 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Mitchell has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 31 points.
Striking split: Moffett throws more volume but Mitchell connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Mitchell's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mitchell
Moffett
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
+73"
31+
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Mitchell
Moffett
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
2.7
48.6
Performance Avg
0.0
31
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Mitchell
Moffett
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.2
55%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Mitchell
Moffett
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mitchell
Moffett
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
3/18 fights
Mitchell
Moffett
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Mitchell
Moffett
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mitchell
Moffett
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MitchellMoffett
Strike Zones
Mitchell
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedMoffett
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mitchell targets the body (67% of attacks) — Moffett absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Moffett targets the head (75% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mitchell
RND
Moffett
0/0R00/0
Mitchell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Moffett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Mitchell · Last 5
Upcoming
Victor HenryUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R2
Jean SilvaRating 4.3Submission
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R3
Kron GracieRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Josh EmmettRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Moffett · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Enrique BarzolaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R3
Bryce MitchellRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
Upcoming
Chas SkellyUFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · 2018-11