UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
1 Aug 2015
Welterweight
VS
73%
Alves
27%
Taleb
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:11
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alves
Alves is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alves has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Taleb has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Alves's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Taleb has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alves
Taleb
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
+74"
35+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Taleb
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.1
14.8
49.3
Performance Avg
43.9
49
Quality of Victory
34
30
Momentum Score
52
Alves
Taleb
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.4
49%
Strike Accuracy
54%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
1
2
Body
2
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance3
2Clinch1
2Ground0
Alves
Taleb
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.6
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alves
Taleb
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
30
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
12/22 fights
Alves
Taleb
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
52
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Alves
Taleb
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
29%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alves
Taleb
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.9
AlvesTaleb
Strike Zones
Alves
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTaleb
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (43% of attacks) — Taleb absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Taleb targets the body (50% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alves
RND
Taleb
0/0R00/0
Alves · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Taleb · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Alves · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Abus MagomedovRating 6.3Decision
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Ikram AliskerovRating 3.2KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Nicolas DalbyRating 5.8Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · KO · R2
Jeremiah WellsRating 4.1KO/TKO
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Mounir LazzezRating 5KO/TKO
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Taleb · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Muslim SalikhovRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Dec · R3
Kyle PrepolecRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
L · KO · R2
Sean StricklandRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Sub · R1
Claudio SilvaRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
W · KO · R1
Danny RobertsRating 5KO/TKO
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