METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

★ Championship Bout · Women's Flyweight
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Las Vegas, USA
25 Sept 2021
Women's Flyweight
VS
55%
Shevchenko
45%
Murphy
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 4 · 4:00
Valentina
Valentina Shevchenko
"Bullet"
26 – 4
5'5"66" reachSouthpaw38 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 62
Lauren
Lauren Murphy
"Lucky"
16 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'5"
CFR 52
★ Official Result
Valentina ShevchenkowinsKO/TKOR4 · 4:00
def. Lauren Murphy · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Shevchenko
→
Actual result
Shevchenko wins
KO/TKO · R4
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Shevchenko at 55% vs Murphy at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Shevchenko has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.

Risk flags

Murphy has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
ShevchenkoMurphy
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Shevchenko
Murphy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
5'5"
66"
Reach
+67"
38+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Shevchenko
Murphy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.2
51.7
66.5
Performance Avg
41.9
55
Quality of Victory
34
53
Momentum Score
87
Shevchenko
Murphy
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
3.6
/ 10
5.3
Style: Pressure
4.2
6.5
Style: Volume
6.1
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
38
Head
1
5
Body
1
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
25Distance2
4Clinch0
18Ground0
Shevchenko
Murphy
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Shevchenko
Murphy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
66
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/30 fights
Chin rating based on
15/23 fights
Shevchenko
Murphy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
87
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R4
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
Shevchenko
Murphy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
38%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
1
9
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Shevchenko
Murphy
Striking4.3 / 3.6Volume6.5 / 6.1Grappling2.5 / 2.5Wrestling1.8 / 1.8Submission1.3 / 1.3Pressure5.3 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
Shevchenko
Strike Zones
Murphy
Shevchenko
Attacking
38HEAD5BODY4LEGS47 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Murphy
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
38HEAD5BODY4LEGS47 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Shevchenko targets the head (81% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Murphy targets the head (50% of attacks) — Shevchenko absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Shevchenko
RND
Murphy
0/0R00/0

Shevchenko · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Zhang Weili
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Manon Fiorot
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Alexa Grasso
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Upcoming
Alexa Grasso
Decision
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
L · Sub · R4
Alexa Grasso
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03

Murphy · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Eduarda Moura
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Jessica Andrade
Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Miesha Tate
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · KO · R4
Valentina Shevchenko
KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
W · Dec · R3
Joanne Wood
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06

News & Media

Valentina Shevchenko · Lauren Murphy
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