★ Championship Bout · Women's Flyweight
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Las Vegas, USA
25 Sept 2021
Women's Flyweight
VS
55%
Shevchenko
45%
Murphy
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 4 · 4:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Shevchenko
This is a genuine toss-up — Shevchenko at 55% vs Murphy at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Shevchenko has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Striking split: Murphy throws more volume but Shevchenko connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Murphy has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Shevchenko
Murphy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
5'5"
66"
Reach
+67"
38+
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Shevchenko
Murphy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.2
51.7
66.5
Performance Avg
41.9
55
Quality of Victory
34
53
Momentum Score
87
Shevchenko
Murphy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.5
58%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
38
Head
1
5
Body
1
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
25Distance2
4Clinch0
18Ground0
Shevchenko
Murphy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Shevchenko
Murphy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
66
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/30 fights
Chin rating based on
15/23 fights
Shevchenko
Murphy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
87
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R4
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
Shevchenko
Murphy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
38%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
1
9
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Shevchenko
Murphy
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
ShevchenkoMurphy
Strike Zones
Shevchenko
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedMurphy
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Shevchenko targets the head (81% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Murphy targets the head (50% of attacks) — Shevchenko absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Shevchenko
RND
Murphy
0/0R00/0
Shevchenko · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Murphy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Shevchenko · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Zhang WeiliRating 6.3Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Manon FiorotRating 6.1Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Alexa GrassoRating 5.7Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Upcoming
Alexa GrassoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
L · Sub · R4
Alexa GrassoRating 4.6Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
Murphy · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Eduarda MouraRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Jessica AndradeRating 6.3Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Miesha TateRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · KO · R4
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 4.7KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
W · Dec · R3
Joanne WoodRating 4.7Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06