The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale
Las Vegas, USA
4 Jun 2011
Lightweight
VS
6%
Downes
94%
Stephens
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DD
Danny Downes
8 – 3
6'0"72" reachOrthodox40 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 3
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
Well-Rounded7-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Stephens

Stephens is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Stephens has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.

Stephens has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Downes
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
71"
40
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Downes
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.7
45.0
0.0
Performance Avg
41.1
0
Quality of Victory
40
0
Momentum Score
76
Downes
Stephens
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.1
1.3
21%
Strike Accuracy
42%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
10
3
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance2
4Clinch4
0Ground6
Downes
Stephens
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Downes
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/11 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Downes
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
76
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Downes
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
47%
0
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Downes
Stephens
Striking0.0 / 5.5Volume0.0 / 4.6Grappling0.0 / 1.1Wrestling0.0 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Downes
Strike Zones
Stephens
Downes
Attacking
1HEAD3BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD2BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Stephens
Attacking
10HEAD2BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD3BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Downes targets the body (75% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the head (83% of attacks) — Downes absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Downes
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0

Downes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0106.0L5.5L2011-062011-10
WinLossTrend

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Downes · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Ramsey NijemRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · 2011-10
L · Dec · R3
Jeremy StephensRating 6
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · 2011-06

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

News & Media

Danny Downes · Jeremy Stephens
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