METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Las Vegas, USA
27 Sept 2014
Bantamweight
VS
66%
Cruz
34%
Mizugaki
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:01
★ Official Result
Dominick CruzwinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:01
def. Takeya Mizugaki · UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cruz
→
Actual result
Cruz wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Cruz holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Mizugaki has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Mizugaki throws more volume but Cruz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cruz's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mizugaki has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CruzMizugaki
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Cruz
Mizugaki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
+69"
41+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cruz
Mizugaki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.2
16.4
50.3
Performance Avg
40.1
37
Quality of Victory
29
100
Momentum Score
98
Cruz
Mizugaki
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
1.4
39%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch0
22Ground0
Cruz
Mizugaki
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cruz
Mizugaki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
18
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/28 fights
Chin rating based on
14/32 fights
Cruz
Mizugaki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
98
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Cruz
Mizugaki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
13%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cruz
Mizugaki
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
8.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
CruzMizugaki
Strike Zones
Cruz
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedMizugaki
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cruz targets the head (100% of attacks) — Mizugaki absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Mizugaki targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cruz absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cruz
RND
Mizugaki
0/0R00/0
Cruz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Mizugaki · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Cruz · Last 5
L · KO · R4
Marlon VeraRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
W · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozRating 5Decision
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Casey KenneyRating 4.5Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · KO · R2
Henry CejudoRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R5
Cody GarbrandtRating 6.6Decision
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
Mizugaki · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eddie WinelandRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
George RoopRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Dominick CruzRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09