UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Montreal, Canada
17 Nov 2012
Middleweight
VS
48%
Cote
52%
Sakara
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sakara
This is a genuine toss-up — Cote at 48% vs Sakara at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Sakara has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Sakara throws more volume but Cote connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cote's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sakara has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cote
Sakara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"+
Reach
72"
46
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cote
Sakara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.1
17.5
41.8
Performance Avg
46.1
38
Quality of Victory
48
79
Momentum Score
76
Cote
Sakara
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.0
49%
Strike Accuracy
49%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
19
3
Body
5
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance3
6Clinch12
0Ground9
Cote
Sakara
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cote
Sakara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/34 fights
Chin rating based on
15/30 fights
Cote
Sakara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
76
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Cote
Sakara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
67%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cote
Sakara
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.5
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
CoteSakara
Strike Zones
Cote
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedSakara
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cote targets the head (64% of attacks) — Sakara absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Sakara targets the head (79% of attacks) — Cote absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cote
RND
Sakara
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Cote · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Sakara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.4WinLossTrend
Cote · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 5.5Decision
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L · KO · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4KO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2KO/TKO
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W · KO · R3
Joshua BurkmanRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08
W · Dec · R3
Joe RiggsRating 4.5Decision
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · 2015-04
Sakara · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Nicholas MusokeRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
L · R1
Patrick CoteRating 4UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
L · KO · R1
Brian StannRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · 2012-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3Decision
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · 2011-03
W · KO · R1
James IrvinRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · 2010-03