UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
Las Vegas, USA
7 Dec 2024
Lightweight
VS
46%
Guida
54%
Hooper
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:41
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
5'7"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 44
Chase
Chase Hooper
"The Dream"
16 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide26 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'1"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hooper

This is a genuine toss-up — Guida at 46% vs Hooper at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Hooper has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hooper has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Guida
Hooper
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+6'1"
70"
Reach
+74"
44
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Guida
Hooper
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
50.9
40.7
Performance Avg
51.8
35
Quality of Victory
45
78
Momentum Score
51
Guida
Hooper
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.9
36%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
5
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance5
3Clinch1
0Ground1
Guida
Hooper
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Hooper
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
30
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
13/21 fights
Guida
Hooper
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
51
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Guida
Hooper
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
75%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
4
11
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guida
Hooper
Striking2.1 / 3.7Volume5.9 / 3.2Grappling3.7 / 4.6Wrestling2.6 / 3.2Submission2.8 / 5.0Pressure4.2 / 7.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.1
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
Guida
Strike Zones
Hooper
Guida
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Hooper
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (60% of attacks) — Hooper absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Hooper targets the head (71% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guida
RND
Hooper
0/0R00/0

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Hooper · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W5.7L5.5W5.5L5.5W3.4L4.5W6.5W5.8W5.5W4.9W2.4L2.9L2019-122022-052024-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Hooper · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Lance Gibson Jr.Rating 2.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Alexander HernandezRating 2.4
KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Clay GuidaRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R2
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5.8
Submission
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News & Media

Clay Guida · Chase Hooper
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