★ Championship Bout · Women's Bantamweight
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Dallas, USA
30 Jul 2022
Women's Bantamweight
VS
53%
Pena
47%
Nunes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pena
This is a genuine toss-up — Pena at 53% vs Nunes at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nunes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Pena throws more volume but Nunes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pena's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nunes has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pena
Nunes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
69"
Reach
69"
36+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pena
Nunes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.6
58.2
58.0
Performance Avg
75.2
52
Quality of Victory
66
100
Momentum Score
100
Pena
Nunes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
54%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
10
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground10
Pena
Nunes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
1.9
2
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pena
Nunes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
66
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
15 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/19 fights
Chin rating based on
18/28 fights
Pena
Nunes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R5
Pena
Nunes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
63%
2
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pena
Nunes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.9
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
PenaNunes
Strike Zones
Pena
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedNunes
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pena targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nunes absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Nunes targets the head (91% of attacks) — Pena absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pena
RND
Nunes
0/0R00/0
0/0R30/0
Pena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Nunes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Pena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Kayla HarrisonRating 4.3Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Raquel PenningtonRating 5.1Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R5
Amanda NunesRating 6.7Decision
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Sub · R2
Amanda NunesRating 6.3Submission
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Sub · R3
Sara McMannRating 5.5Submission
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
Nunes · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Irene AldanaRating 5.3Decision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
W · Dec · R5
Julianna PenaRating 6Decision
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
L · Sub · R2
Julianna PenaRating 3.7Submission
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Sub · R1
Megan AndersonRating 5Submission
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
W · Dec · R5
Felicia SpencerRating 4.8Decision
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06