UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
Sao Paulo, Brazil
28 Oct 2017
Middleweight
VS
57%
Junior
43%
Marshman
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:30
AC
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
11 – 5
6'2"79" reachOrthodox36 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 19
JM
Jack Marshman
"The Hammer"
23 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'0"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Junior

This is a genuine toss-up — Junior at 57% vs Marshman at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Junior has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Striking split: Marshman throws more volume but Junior connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Marshman has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Junior
Marshman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
79"+
Reach
73"
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Junior
Marshman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
14.2
55.3
Performance Avg
36.0
53
Quality of Victory
35
41
Momentum Score
54
Junior
Marshman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.1
43%
Strike Accuracy
25%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
0
0
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance1
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Junior
Marshman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
4.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Junior
Marshman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/16 fights
Chin rating based on
8/33 fights
Junior
Marshman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
41
54
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Junior
Marshman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Junior
Marshman
Striking1.2 / 4.1Volume3.5 / 6.1Grappling6.4 / 1.6Wrestling4.5 / 1.1Submission7.1 / 0.0Pressure6.8 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
6.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
4.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
7.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
Junior
Strike Zones
Marshman
Junior
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY2LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Marshman
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY2LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Junior targets the head (82% of attacks) — Marshman absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Marshman targets the body (100% of attacks) — Junior absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Junior
RND
Marshman
0/0R00/0

Junior · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.5L5.5W4.0L5.5W5.3W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5L2014-052016-032017-062019-052021-01
WinLossTrend

Marshman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.2W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W2.9L6.6L2016-112017-072018-112019-072020-10
WinLossTrend

Junior · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Sub · R1
Tim BoetschRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · Sub · R1
Jack MarshmanRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10

Marshman · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10
L · Sub · R1
Edmen ShahbazyanRating 2.9
Submission
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Dec · R3
John PhillipsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
L · Dec · R3
Karl RobersonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
L · Sub · R1
Antonio Carlos JuniorRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10

News & Media

Antonio Carlos Junior · Jack Marshman
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