UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve
Rotterdam, Netherlands
2 Sept 2017
Welterweight
VS
57%
Edwards
43%
Barberena
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Edwards
This is a genuine toss-up — Edwards at 57% vs Barberena at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Barberena throws more volume but Edwards connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Barberena has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Edwards
Barberena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
74"+
Reach
72"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Edwards
Barberena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
43.3
51.1
Performance Avg
43.9
36
Quality of Victory
42
95
Momentum Score
76
Edwards
Barberena
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
2.7
56%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
11
0
Body
2
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance5
0Clinch9
0Ground0
Edwards
Barberena
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Barberena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
10
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
19/30 fights
Edwards
Barberena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
76
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Edwards
Barberena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
56%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edwards
Barberena
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
EdwardsBarberena
Strike Zones
Edwards
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedBarberena
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the legs (56% of attacks) — Barberena absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Barberena targets the head (79% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edwards
RND
Barberena
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Edwards · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Barberena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Edwards · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R4
Sean BradyRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
Barberena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · Sub · R2
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · KO · R2
Robbie LawlerRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07