METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
New York City, USA
6 Nov 2021
Welterweight
VS
96%
Garry
4%
Williams
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:59
★ Official Result
Ian Machado GarrywinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:59
def. Jordan Williams · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Garry
→
Actual result
Garry wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Garry is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 60 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Garry has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Risk flags
Williams has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GarryWilliams
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Garry
Williams
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
+75"
28+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Garry
Williams
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.9
2.8
54.0
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Garry
Williams
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
4.6
Style: Pressure
0.0
7.3
Style: Volume
0.0
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
16
5
Body
3
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
14Distance20
4Clinch2
0Ground0
Garry
Williams
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Garry
Williams
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/18 fights
Chin rating based on
3/15 fights
Garry
Williams
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Garry
Williams
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Garry
Williams
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
GarryWilliams
Strike Zones
Garry
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedWilliams
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Garry targets the head (61% of attacks) — Williams absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Williams targets the head (73% of attacks) — Garry absorbs 73% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Garry
RND
Williams
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Garry · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
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Williams · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Ian Machado GarryKO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · Sub · R1
Mickey GallSubmission
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L · Dec · R3
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