UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
New York City, USA
6 Nov 2021
Welterweight
VS
96%
Garry
4%
Williams
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Garry
Garry is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 62 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Garry has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Striking split: Williams throws more volume but Garry connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Williams has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Garry
Williams
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
+75"
28+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Garry
Williams
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.8
2.8
57.1
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Garry
Williams
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.2
59%
Strike Accuracy
34%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
16
5
Body
3
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
14Distance20
4Clinch2
0Ground0
Garry
Williams
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Garry
Williams
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
3/15 fights
Garry
Williams
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Garry
Williams
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Garry
Williams
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
GarryWilliams
Strike Zones
Garry
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedWilliams
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Garry targets the head (61% of attacks) — Williams absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Williams targets the head (73% of attacks) — Garry absorbs 73% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Garry
RND
Williams
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Garry · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Williams · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Garry · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Carlos PratesRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 7.6Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Michael PageRating 5.3Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Geoff NealRating 5.5Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
Williams · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Ian Machado GarryRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · Sub · R1
Mickey GallRating 2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
L · Dec · R3
Nassourdine ImavovRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10