UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
20 May 2023
Welterweight
VS
36%
Fialho
64%
Buckley
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:15
AF
Andre Fialho
16 – 8
6'0"74" reachOrthodox32 yrs4-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 33
Joaquin
Joaquin Buckley
"New Mansa"
21 – 8
Striker2-fight slide32 yrsSouthpaw76" reach5'10"
CFR 58

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Buckley

Buckley holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Fialho has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Fialho has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.

Striking split: Buckley throws more volume but Fialho connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Fialho's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Buckley has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Fialho
Buckley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
74"
Reach
+76"
32
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Fialho
Buckley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.8
58.0
47.4
Performance Avg
50.6
60
Quality of Victory
41
20
Momentum Score
100
Fialho
Buckley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.6
44%
Strike Accuracy
41%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
6
3
Body
7
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
14Distance16
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Fialho
Buckley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Fialho
Buckley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
28
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/24 fights
Chin rating based on
17/29 fights
Fialho
Buckley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Fialho
Buckley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
55%
2
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Fialho
Buckley
Striking10.0 / 6.8Volume0.6 / 3.5Grappling0.0 / 0.7Wrestling0.0 / 0.5Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.9 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
0.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Fialho
Strike Zones
Buckley
Fialho
Attacking
10HEAD3BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD7BODY3LEGS16 absorbed
Buckley
Attacking
6HEAD7BODY3LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD3BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Fialho targets the head (71% of attacks) — Buckley absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Buckley targets the body (44% of attacks) — Fialho absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Fialho
RND
Buckley
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Fialho · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0106.1L5.6W5.0W3.8L5.0L3.9L4.1L2022-012022-052022-112023-09
WinLossTrend

Buckley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.6L5.2W5.2W1.5L5.5W6.0W4.2W6.9L3.5L5.2W4.5W6.7W6.4W6.1W5.6W6.6L6.6L2020-082022-022023-102025-062026-05
WinLossTrend

Fialho · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Tim MeansRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · KO · R2
Joaquin BuckleyRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · KO · R3
Muslim SalikhovRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
L · KO · R2
Jake MatthewsRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · 2022-06
W · KO · R1
Cameron VanCampRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

Buckley · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean BradyRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 5.6
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Nursulton RuziboevRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

News & Media

Andre Fialho · Joaquin Buckley
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