UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi
St. Louis, USA
14 Jan 2018
Women's Bantamweight
VS
15%
Bernardo
85%
Aldana
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Aldana
Aldana is a strong favourite at 85% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aldana has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Aldana throws more volume but Bernardo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Bernardo's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bernardo
Aldana
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'9"
68"
Reach
68"
39
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bernardo
Aldana
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
9.1
50.5
25.0
Performance Avg
46.5
25
Quality of Victory
39
28
Momentum Score
81
Bernardo
Aldana
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
2.1
55%
Strike Accuracy
45%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
25
0
Body
5
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
21Distance24
0Clinch0
0Ground6
Bernardo
Aldana
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Bernardo
Aldana
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
88
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/10 fights
Chin rating based on
14/23 fights
Bernardo
Aldana
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
81
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Bernardo
Aldana
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bernardo
Aldana
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
BernardoAldana
Strike Zones
Bernardo
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedAldana
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bernardo targets the head (71% of attacks) — Aldana absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Aldana targets the head (83% of attacks) — Bernardo absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bernardo
RND
Aldana
0/0R00/0
Bernardo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Aldana · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Bernardo · Last 4
L · KO · R3
Viviane AraujoRating 4.7KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Sarah MorasRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Irene AldanaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
L · KO · R3
Marion ReneauRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09
Aldana · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Norma DumontRating 6Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Karol RosaRating 5.2Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R5
Amanda NunesRating 6.7Decision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
W · KO · R3
Macy ChiassonRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
W · KO · R1
Yana SantosRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07