METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Women's Strawweight
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2014
Women's Strawweight
VS
39%
Esparza
61%
Namajunas
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:26
★ Official Result
Carla EsparzawinsSubmissionR3 · 1:26
def. Rose Namajunas · The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Namajunas
→
Actual result
Esparza wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Namajunas holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Esparza has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Namajunas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Risk flags
Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Namajunas has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EsparzaNamajunas
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Esparza
Namajunas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'5"
63"
Reach
+65"
38
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Esparza
Namajunas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
62.4
45.9
Performance Avg
54.8
35
Quality of Victory
49
60
Momentum Score
100
Esparza
Namajunas
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
3.3
Style: Pressure
4.8
7.7
Style: Volume
5.9
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Esparza
Namajunas
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
1.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
1
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Esparza
Namajunas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
56
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
10 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
19/23 fights
Esparza
Namajunas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Esparza
Namajunas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
42%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Esparza
Namajunas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
EsparzaNamajunas
Strike Zones
Esparza
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedNamajunas
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the head (100% of attacks) — Namajunas absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Namajunas targets the head (100% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Esparza
RND
Namajunas
0/0R00/0
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L · Dec · R3
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Namajunas · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Miranda MaverickDecision
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L · Dec · R5
Erin BlanchfieldDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
W · Dec · R5
Tracy CortezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Amanda RibasDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03