★ Championship Bout · Women's Strawweight
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2014
Women's Strawweight
VS
39%
Esparza
61%
Namajunas
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:26
Carla
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
20 – 8
5'1"63" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 41
Rose
Rose Namajunas
"Thug"
15 – 8
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'5"
CFR 63

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Namajunas

Namajunas holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Esparza has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Namajunas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Namajunas has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Namajunas has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Esparza
Namajunas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'5"
63"
Reach
+65"
38
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Esparza
Namajunas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
63.2
45.9
Performance Avg
55.9
35
Quality of Victory
51
60
Momentum Score
100
Esparza
Namajunas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.0
40%
Strike Accuracy
41%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Esparza
Namajunas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.4
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Esparza
Namajunas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
56
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
10 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
19/23 fights
Esparza
Namajunas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Esparza
Namajunas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
42%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Esparza
Namajunas
Striking2.3 / 2.9Volume7.7 / 5.9Grappling2.7 / 3.4Wrestling1.9 / 2.4Submission1.0 / 2.5Pressure3.3 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Esparza
Strike Zones
Namajunas
Esparza
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Namajunas
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the head (100% of attacks) — Namajunas absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Namajunas targets the head (100% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Esparza
RND
Namajunas
0/0R00/0

Esparza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0106.7W2.1L4.5W5.5L5.1W4.5W5.5L5.9L5.2W5.7W4.5W5.2W6.2W5.9W4.0L6.2L2014-122017-062019-042021-052024-10
WinLossTrend

Namajunas · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0103.0L5.1W5.5W5.2W5.5L5.2W5.0W4.5W2.9L5.3W6.8W6.3W5.8L7.1L4.6W5.2W7.0L5.3W7.0L2014-122017-042021-042024-072026-01
WinLossTrend

Esparza · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

Namajunas · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaRating 7
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Miranda MaverickRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R5
Erin BlanchfieldRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
W · Dec · R5
Tracy CortezRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Amanda RibasRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03

News & Media

Carla Esparza · Rose Namajunas
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