UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
New York City, USA
6 Nov 2021
Featherweight
VS
92%
Baghdasaryan
8%
Souza
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Baghdasaryan
Baghdasaryan is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Baghdasaryan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Striking split: Souza throws more volume but Baghdasaryan connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Baghdasaryan's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
70"
34
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.5
4.2
45.0
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
48
Momentum Score
0
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
10
9
Body
6
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
21Distance17
2Clinch2
0Ground0
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/11 fights
Chin rating based on
2/13 fights
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
48
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
BaghdasaryanSouza
Strike Zones
Baghdasaryan
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedSouza
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Baghdasaryan targets the head (39% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 39% of strikes there
🎯Souza targets the head (53% of attacks) — Baghdasaryan absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Baghdasaryan
RND
Souza
0/0R00/0
Baghdasaryan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Souza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Baghdasaryan · Last 5
Upcoming
Murtazali MagomedovUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · KO · R1
Jean SilvaRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Tucker LutzRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · Sub · R2
Josh CulibaoRating 3.1Submission
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
W · Dec · R3
Bruno SouzaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
Souza · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Luis SaldanaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Melsik BaghdasaryanRating 6Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11