METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
New York City, USA
6 Nov 2021
Featherweight
VS
90%
Baghdasaryan
10%
Souza
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Melsik BaghdasaryanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Bruno Souza · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Baghdasaryan
→
Actual result
Baghdasaryan wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Baghdasaryan is a strong favourite at 90% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Baghdasaryan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Risk flags
Baghdasaryan's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BaghdasaryanSouza
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
70"
34
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.7
4.2
41.0
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
25
Momentum Score
0
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
3.8
Style: Pressure
0.0
6.3
Style: Volume
0.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
10
9
Body
6
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
21Distance17
2Clinch2
0Ground0
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/11 fights
Chin rating based on
2/13 fights
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Baghdasaryan
Souza
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
BaghdasaryanSouza
Strike Zones
Baghdasaryan
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedSouza
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Baghdasaryan targets the head (39% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 39% of strikes there
🎯Souza targets the head (53% of attacks) — Baghdasaryan absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Baghdasaryan
RND
Souza
0/0R00/0
Baghdasaryan · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Murtazali MagomedovSubmission
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L · KO · R1
Jean SilvaKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Tucker LutzDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · Sub · R2
Josh CulibaoSubmission
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
W · Dec · R3
Bruno SouzaDecision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
Souza · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Luis SaldanaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Melsik BaghdasaryanDecision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11