METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Sept 2020
Welterweight
VS
19%
Sanchez
81%
Matthews
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DS
Diego Sanchez
"Nightmare"
31 – 13
5'10"72" reachSouthpaw44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 13
Jake
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
22 – 8
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'11"
CFR 55
★ Official Result
Jake MatthewswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Diego Sanchez · UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Matthews
→
Actual result
Matthews wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

Matthews is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Sanchez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Matthews has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
SanchezMatthews
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Sanchez
Matthews
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
+73"
44
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Sanchez
Matthews
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.7
55.2
46.0
Performance Avg
48.4
37
Quality of Victory
36
20
Momentum Score
100
Sanchez
Matthews
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
4.0
Style: Pressure
5.1
6.2
Style: Volume
5.3
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
27
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance3
0Clinch0
2Ground24
Sanchez
Matthews
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.8
0
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sanchez
Matthews
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
24
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/44 fights
Chin rating based on
24/30 fights
Sanchez
Matthews
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
100
L · Dec · R3
W · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Sanchez
Matthews
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
32%
44%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
6
13
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sanchez
Matthews
Striking4.3 / 2.0Volume6.2 / 5.3Grappling1.5 / 4.2Wrestling1.1 / 2.9Submission0.0 / 3.8Pressure4.0 / 5.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
Sanchez
Strike Zones
Matthews
Sanchez
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD0BODY0LEGS27 absorbed
Matthews
Attacking
27HEAD0BODY0LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sanchez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Matthews targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sanchez absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sanchez
RND
Matthews
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Sanchez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jake Matthews
Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
W · R3
Michel Pereira
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael Chiesa
Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · KO · R2
Mickey Gall
KO/TKO
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Craig White
Decision
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09

Matthews · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Carlston Harris
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil Magny
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi Njokuani
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco Prado
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil Rowe
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

News & Media

Diego Sanchez · Jake Matthews
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