UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Sept 2020
Welterweight
VS
19%
Sanchez
81%
Matthews
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DS
Diego Sanchez
"Nightmare"
31 – 13
5'10"72" reachSouthpaw44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 13
Jake
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
22 – 8
Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'11"
CFR 55

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Matthews

Matthews is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Matthews has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Sanchez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Matthews has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sanchez
Matthews
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
+73"
44
Age
+31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Sanchez
Matthews
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.7
55.4
46.0
Performance Avg
48.3
37
Quality of Victory
37
20
Momentum Score
100
Sanchez
Matthews
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
39%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
27
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance3
0Clinch0
2Ground24
Sanchez
Matthews
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sanchez
Matthews
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
24
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/44 fights
Chin rating based on
24/30 fights
Sanchez
Matthews
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
100
L · Dec · R3
W · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Sanchez
Matthews
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
32%
47%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
6
13
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sanchez
Matthews
Striking4.3 / 2.0Volume6.2 / 5.0Grappling1.5 / 4.3Wrestling1.1 / 3.0Submission0.0 / 4.0Pressure4.0 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Sanchez
Strike Zones
Matthews
Sanchez
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD0BODY0LEGS27 absorbed
Matthews
Attacking
27HEAD0BODY0LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sanchez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Matthews targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sanchez absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sanchez
RND
Matthews
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Sanchez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W5.2W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L4.9W1.5L4.5W1.5L1.9L4.5W5.8W6.3L5.1W6.5L2005-042008-032012-022016-112020-09
WinLossTrend

Matthews · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W5.2W1.5L4.2W5.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W5.3W5.0W4.0L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.1L5.2W6.0L6.0W7.6L5.6W5.2W6.1W4.6L2014-062016-112020-022023-112025-09
WinLossTrend

Sanchez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
W · R3
Michel PereiraRating 5.1
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · KO · R2
Mickey GallRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Craig WhiteRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09

Matthews · Last 5

Upcoming
Muslim Salikhov
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

News & Media

Diego Sanchez · Jake Matthews
← Back to fights