Michael Morales vs Jake Matthews — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig

Las Vegas, USA

18 Nov 2023

Welterweight

58%

Morales

42%

Matthews

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Michael Morales

19 – 0

6'0"79" reachOrthodox27 yrs7-fight win streakKnockout Artist

CFR 77

Jake Matthews

"The Celtic Kid"

22 – 8

Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'11"

CFR 55

★ Official Result

Michael MoraleswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Jake Matthews · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Morales

→

Actual result

Morales wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Morales at 58% vs Matthews at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Morales has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Risk flags

Matthews has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MoralesMatthews

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Morales

Matthews

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'0"+

Height

5'11"

79"+

Reach

73"

27+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Morales

Matthews

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

76.5

55.2

70.0

Performance Avg

48.4

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

100

Morales

Matthews

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

9.1

/ 10

2.0

/ 10

8.0

Style: Pressure

5.1

4.3

Style: Volume

5.3

5 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

22Distance23

0Clinch2

0Ground0

Morales

Matthews

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.7

/ 10

4.2

/ 10

0.5

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.9

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

3.8

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Morales

Matthews

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

100

Never stopped

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

18 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

7/19 fights

Chin rating based on

24/30 fights

Morales

Matthews

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

7-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

W · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R3

W · Sub · R1

W · Dec · R3

Morales

Matthews

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

71%

44%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Morales

Matthews

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

9.1

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

2.0

0.7

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.2

0.5

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.9

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

3.8

8.0

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.1

4.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.3

Morales

Strike Zones

Matthews

Morales

Attacking

22 landed

Absorbing

25 absorbed

Matthews

Attacking

25 landed

Absorbing

22 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Morales targets the head (59% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 59% of strikes there

🎯Matthews targets the head (52% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 52% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Morales

RND

Matthews

0/0R00/0

Morales · Last 5

W · KO · R1

Sean Brady

KO/TKO

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

W · KO · R1

Gilbert Burns

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05

W · KO · R1

Neil Magny

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08

W · Dec · R3

Jake Matthews

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11

W · Dec · R3

Max Griffin

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07

Matthews · Last 5

W · Dec · R3

Carlston Harris

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05

L · Sub · R3

Neil Magny

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09

W · Sub · R1

Chidi Njokuani

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07

W · Dec · R3

Francisco Prado

Decision

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02

W · Dec · R3

Phil Rowe

Decision

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

News & Media

Michael Morales · Jake Matthews

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