UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Las Vegas, USA
18 Nov 2023
Welterweight
VS
58%
Morales
42%
Matthews
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Morales
This is a genuine toss-up — Morales at 58% vs Matthews at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Morales has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Morales has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Matthews has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Morales
Matthews
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
79"+
Reach
73"
26+
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Morales
Matthews
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
76.5
55.4
70.0
Performance Avg
48.3
50
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
100
Morales
Matthews
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.6
1.2
57%
Strike Accuracy
46%
9.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
13
2
Body
8
7
Leg
4
RangeRange
22Distance23
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Morales
Matthews
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Morales
Matthews
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
24
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/19 fights
Chin rating based on
24/30 fights
Morales
Matthews
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Morales
Matthews
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
47%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
6
2
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Morales
Matthews
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
MoralesMatthews
Strike Zones
Morales
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedMatthews
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Morales targets the head (59% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Matthews targets the head (52% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 52% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Morales
RND
Matthews
0/0R00/0
Morales · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Matthews · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Morales · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Sean BradyRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Neil MagnyRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
Matthews · Last 5
Upcoming
Muslim SalikhovUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06