UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard
Las Vegas, USA
5 Apr 2007
Welterweight
VS
57%
Fickett
43%
Nakamura
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DF
Drew Fickett
"The Master"
42 – 21
5'10"70" reachOrthodox46 yrsSubmission Hunter
CFR 18
KN
Keita Nakamura
"K-Taro"
34 – 10
Well-Rounded42 yrsSouthpaw73" reach5'11"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Fickett

This is a genuine toss-up — Fickett at 57% vs Nakamura at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Nakamura has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Fickett's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Fickett
Nakamura
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+73"
46
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Fickett
Nakamura
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.0
13.7
48.2
Performance Avg
36.2
42
Quality of Victory
36
52
Momentum Score
26
Fickett
Nakamura
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.8
33%
Strike Accuracy
37%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
5
11
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance3
1Clinch2
21Ground0
Fickett
Nakamura
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
4.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Fickett
Nakamura
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
86
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/63 fights
Chin rating based on
11/44 fights
Fickett
Nakamura
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
26
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Fickett
Nakamura
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Fickett
Nakamura
Striking1.1 / 0.7Volume3.1 / 4.7Grappling6.6 / 5.2Wrestling4.6 / 3.6Submission7.5 / 5.0Pressure7.0 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
6.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
4.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
7.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Fickett
Strike Zones
Nakamura
Fickett
Attacking
11HEAD11BODY0LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Nakamura
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD11BODY0LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Fickett targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nakamura absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Nakamura targets the head (100% of attacks) — Fickett absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Fickett
RND
Nakamura
0/0R00/0

Fickett · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0101.5L5.0W5.5W1.5L5.5W5.5L4.5W2005-022005-102006-072007-04
WinLossTrend

Nakamura · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5L5.5L6.3W5.5L5.2W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2006-122015-092016-102018-122019-04
WinLossTrend

Fickett · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Keita NakamuraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard · 2007-04
L · Dec · R3
Karo ParisyanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sanchez vs Riggs · 2006-12
W · Sub · R3
Kurt PellegrinoRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 61: Bitter Rivals · 2006-07
L · Sub · R1
Joshua BurkmanRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night 3 · 2006-01
W · Sub · R3
Josh KoscheckRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night 2 · 2005-10

Nakamura · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sultan AlievRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
W · Dec · R3
Salim TouahriRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10

News & Media

Drew Fickett · Keita Nakamura
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