METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
London, United Kingdom
8 Mar 2014
Lightweight
VS
68%
Johnson
32%
Guillard
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Michael JohnsonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Melvin Guillard · UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Johnson
→
Actual result
Johnson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Johnson holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Guillard has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Guillard has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
JohnsonGuillard
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Johnson
Guillard
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
71"
40+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Guillard
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
17.7
42.5
Performance Avg
49.7
38
Quality of Victory
45
35
Momentum Score
73
Johnson
Guillard
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.8
/ 10
7.0
/ 10
4.1
Style: Pressure
5.8
6.0
Style: Volume
3.8
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
7 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
5
0
Body
0
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance3
7Clinch3
0Ground0
Johnson
Guillard
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Johnson
Guillard
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
2
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
6
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/45 fights
Chin rating based on
22/50 fights
Johnson
Guillard
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
73
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Johnson
Guillard
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
58%
6
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Guillard
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
JohnsonGuillard
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedGuillard
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (64% of attacks) — Guillard absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Guillard targets the head (83% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Guillard
0/0R00/0
Johnson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Drew DoberKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberDecision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
Guillard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03
Upcoming
Ross PearsonUFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
W · KO · R2
Mac DanzigKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Jamie VarnerDecision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneKO/TKO
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08