UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
London, United Kingdom
8 Mar 2014
Lightweight
VS
68%
Johnson
32%
Guillard
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Michael
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25 – 20
5'10"73" reachSouthpaw39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 37
MG
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
32 – 18
Striker43 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Johnson

Johnson holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Guillard has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Guillard has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Johnson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Guillard has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Johnson
Guillard
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
71"
39+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Guillard
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
17.7
42.5
Performance Avg
49.7
38
Quality of Victory
45
35
Momentum Score
73
Johnson
Guillard
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.6
39%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
5
0
Body
0
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance3
7Clinch3
0Ground0
Johnson
Guillard
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Guillard
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
2
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
6
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/45 fights
Chin rating based on
22/50 fights
Johnson
Guillard
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
73
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Johnson
Guillard
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
58%
6
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Johnson
Guillard
Striking4.8 / 7.0Volume6.0 / 3.8Grappling1.5 / 0.8Wrestling1.1 / 0.6Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.1 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Johnson
Strike Zones
Guillard
Johnson
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY5LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Guillard
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY5LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (64% of attacks) — Guillard absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Guillard targets the head (83% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Johnson
RND
Guillard
0/0R00/0

Johnson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.0L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W6.5L5.5L6.3W4.0L3.7L3.2L5.2W4.5W4.1L5.5L3.0L6.0L5.2W5.7L4.6W3.8L5.3W6.0W4.9W4.0L2010-122013-082017-072022-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Guillard · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0104.2W1.5L5.0W5.2W1.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W1.5L1.9L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W5.6L2005-112008-072011-012012-122014-03
WinLossTrend

Johnson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Drew DoberRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

Guillard · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03
Upcoming
Ross Pearson
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
W · KO · R2
Mac DanzigRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Jamie VarnerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08

News & Media

Michael Johnson · Melvin Guillard
← Back to fights