METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Las Vegas, USA
25 Sept 2021
Welterweight
VS
93%
Semelsberger
7%
Sano
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:15
★ Official Result
Matthew SemelsbergerwinsKO/TKOR1 · 0:15
def. Martin Sano · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Semelsberger
→
Actual result
Semelsberger wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Semelsberger is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Semelsberger has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 39 points.
Semelsberger has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Semelsberger's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SemelsbergerSano
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Semelsberger
Sano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
75"
33+
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Semelsberger
Sano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.1
3.4
41.6
Performance Avg
0.0
39
Quality of Victory
0
84
Momentum Score
0
Semelsberger
Sano
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
0.4
43%
Strike Accuracy
33%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Semelsberger
Sano
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Semelsberger
Sano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/19 fights
Chin rating based on
1/7 fights
Semelsberger
Sano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Semelsberger
Sano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Semelsberger
Sano
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
SemelsbergerSano
Strike Zones
Semelsberger
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedSano
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Semelsberger targets the head (67% of attacks) — Sano absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Sano targets the head (100% of attacks) — Semelsberger absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Semelsberger
RND
Sano
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Semelsberger · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Semelsberger · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Charles RadtkeRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Preston ParsonsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R3
Uros MedicRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
Sano · Last 1
L · KO · R1
Matthew SemelsbergerRating 2KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09