UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Las Vegas, USA
25 Sept 2021
Welterweight
VS
93%
Semelsberger
7%
Sano
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:15
Matthew
Matthew Semelsberger
"Semi The Jedi"
11 – 8
6'1"75" reachSwitch33 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
MS
Martin Sano
"Spartan"
4 – 3
Well-Rounded34 yrsOrthodox75" reach5'11"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Semelsberger

Semelsberger is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Semelsberger has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 39 points.

Semelsberger has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Semelsberger's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Semelsberger
Sano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
75"
33+
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Semelsberger
Sano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.1
3.4
41.6
Performance Avg
0.0
39
Quality of Victory
0
84
Momentum Score
0
Semelsberger
Sano
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.4
43%
Strike Accuracy
33%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Semelsberger
Sano
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Semelsberger
Sano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/19 fights
Chin rating based on
1/7 fights
Semelsberger
Sano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Semelsberger
Sano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Semelsberger
Sano
Striking4.9 / 0.0Volume5.7 / 0.0Grappling1.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.0 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.2 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Semelsberger
Strike Zones
Sano
Semelsberger
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Sano
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Semelsberger targets the head (67% of attacks) — Sano absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Sano targets the head (100% of attacks) — Semelsberger absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Semelsberger
RND
Sano
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Semelsberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.5W5.0W6.9L5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W6.9L5.8L5.5L2.7L2020-082021-092022-122024-012024-11
WinLossTrend

Semelsberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Charles RadtkeRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Preston ParsonsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R3
Uros MedicRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12

Sano · Last 1

L · KO · R1
Matthew SemelsbergerRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09

News & Media

Matthew Semelsberger · Martin Sano
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