METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
New Orleans, USA
19 Jul 2025
Middleweight
VS
55%
Ferreira
45%
McVey
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:35
★ Official Result
Brunno FerreirawinsSubmissionR1 · 3:35
def. Jackson McVey · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferreira
→
Actual result
Ferreira wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Ferreira at 55% vs McVey at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McVey has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ferreira's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FerreiraMcVey
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferreira
McVey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'4"
72"
Reach
+77"
33
Age
+27
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ferreira
McVey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.1
54.0
57.5
Performance Avg
45.7
51
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
52
Ferreira
McVey
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.9
2.2
50%
Strike Accuracy
56%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
1
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance4
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Ferreira
McVey
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferreira
McVey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
76
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/18 fights
Chin rating based on
3/9 fights
Ferreira
McVey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
52
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
Ferreira
McVey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferreira
McVey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
FerreiraMcVey
Strike Zones
Ferreira
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedMcVey
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferreira targets the head (57% of attacks) — McVey absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯McVey targets the head (75% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferreira
RND
McVey
0/0R00/0
Ferreira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
McVey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Ferreira · Last 5
Upcoming
Ikram AliskerovUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R1
Jackson McVeyRating 6Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Armen PetrosyanRating 5.2Submission
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
McVey · Last 3
W · Sub · R1
Sedriques DumasRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Sub · R2
Zach ReeseRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
L · Sub · R1
Brunno FerreiraRating 3.1Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07