UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
New Orleans, USA
19 Jul 2025
Middleweight
VS
55%
Ferreira
45%
McVey
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:35
Brunno
Brunno Ferreira
"The Hulk"
15 – 3
5'10"72" reachOrthodox33 yrsPressure Fighter
CFR 66
Jackson
Jackson McVey
"The Moose"
7 – 2
Submission Hunter27 yrsSouthpaw77" reach6'4"
CFR 54

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ferreira

This is a genuine toss-up — Ferreira at 55% vs McVey at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

McVey has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ferreira's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ferreira
McVey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'4"
72"
Reach
+77"
33
Age
+27
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ferreira
McVey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.1
54.0
57.5
Performance Avg
45.7
51
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
52
Ferreira
McVey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
2.2
50%
Strike Accuracy
56%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
1
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance4
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Ferreira
McVey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferreira
McVey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
76
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/18 fights
Chin rating based on
3/9 fights
Ferreira
McVey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
52
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
Ferreira
McVey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ferreira
McVey
Striking6.3 / 0.7Volume2.7 / 0.7Grappling3.1 / 8.0Wrestling2.1 / 5.6Submission3.3 / 10.0Pressure7.8 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Ferreira
Strike Zones
McVey
Ferreira
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
McVey
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ferreira targets the head (57% of attacks) — McVey absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯McVey targets the head (75% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ferreira
RND
McVey
0/0R00/0

Ferreira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0106.6W3.4L5.0W5.0W4.8L5.2W6.0W5.3W3.1L2023-012024-062025-072026-03
WinLossTrend

McVey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0103.1L3.8L5.0W2025-072025-112026-04
WinLossTrend

Ferreira · Last 5

Upcoming
Ikram Aliskerov
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R1
Jackson McVeyRating 6
Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Armen PetrosyanRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03

McVey · Last 3

W · Sub · R1
Sedriques DumasRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Sub · R2
Zach ReeseRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
L · Sub · R1
Brunno FerreiraRating 3.1
Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07

News & Media

Brunno Ferreira · Jackson McVey
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