UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
Copenhagen, Denmark
28 Sept 2019
Welterweight
VS
59%
Nelson
41%
Burns
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nelson
This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 59% vs Burns at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Burns throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Burns has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nelson
Burns
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
72"+
Reach
71"
37+
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Burns
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
39.8
52.8
Performance Avg
48.1
46
Quality of Victory
40
61
Momentum Score
28
Nelson
Burns
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.1
69%
Strike Accuracy
49%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
3
2
Body
1
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
6Distance5
1Clinch3
0Ground0
Nelson
Burns
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
4.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nelson
Burns
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.2 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/25 fights
Chin rating based on
25/32 fights
Nelson
Burns
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
28
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Nelson
Burns
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
53%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
8
Submission Wins
5
2
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Burns
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
6.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
4.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
8.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
NelsonBurns
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedBurns
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the legs (43% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Burns targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Burns
0/0R00/0
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.4Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
Burns · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
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