UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
20 May 2023
Women's Flyweight
VS
76%
Silva
24%
Leonardo
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:58
Natalia
Natalia Silva
20 – 5
5'4"65" reachSouthpaw29 yrs8-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 66
Victoria
Victoria Leonardo
"Fury"
9 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'5"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Silva

Silva is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 44 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Silva has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Leonardo has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Silva
Leonardo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'5"
65"+
Reach
64"
29+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Silva
Leonardo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.7
21.3
59.5
Performance Avg
23.0
33
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
30
Silva
Leonardo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.6
48%
Strike Accuracy
35%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
6
2
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
20Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Silva
Leonardo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Silva
Leonardo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
32
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/25 fights
Chin rating based on
5/16 fights
Silva
Leonardo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
30
8-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
L · KO · R2
Silva
Leonardo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Silva
Leonardo
Striking4.5 / 0.4Volume8.0 / 8.4Grappling1.8 / 2.4Wrestling1.3 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.8 / 0.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.6
8.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.4
Silva
Strike Zones
Leonardo
Silva
Attacking
16HEAD2BODY2LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Leonardo
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD2BODY2LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Silva targets the head (80% of attacks) — Leonardo absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Leonardo targets the head (86% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Silva
RND
Leonardo
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Silva · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.4W5.5W5.0W4.9W5.2W5.3W5.7W5.9W2022-062023-052024-022025-052026-01
WinLossTrend

Leonardo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0104.4L5.7L4.5W3.0L2.8L2021-012021-082022-072023-052024-08
WinLossTrend

Silva · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Rose NamajunasRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Alexa GrassoRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Jessica AndradeRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Viviane AraujoRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Andrea LeeRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

Leonardo · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Wang CongRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
L · KO · R1
Natalia SilvaRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Mandy BohmRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · R2
Melissa GattoRating 5.7
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · 2021-08
L · KO · R2
Manon FiorotRating 4.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01

News & Media

Natalia Silva · Victoria Leonardo
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