METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Las Vegas, USA
25 Sept 2021
Featherweight
VS
64%
Pearce
36%
Morales
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:31
★ Official Result
Jonathan PearcewinsSubmissionR2 · 3:31
def. Omar Morales · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Pearce
→
Actual result
Pearce wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Pearce holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Morales has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pearce has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Risk flags
Pearce's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Morales has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PearceMorales
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Pearce
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
71"
Reach
+73"
34+
Age
40
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Pearce
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.8
25.6
47.4
Performance Avg
32.1
42
Quality of Victory
25
56
Momentum Score
45
Pearce
Morales
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.1
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
5.9
Style: Pressure
1.3
4.3
Style: Volume
8.9
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Pearce
Morales
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pearce
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
7/15 fights
Pearce
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Pearce
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pearce
Morales
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
PearceMorales
Strike Zones
Pearce
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedMorales
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pearce targets the head (100% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pearce absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pearce
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0
Pearce · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Pat SabatiniSubmission
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L · Dec · R3
David OnamaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Sub · R2
Joanderson BritoSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · KO · R2
Makwan AmirkhaniKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
Morales · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Chris DuncanDecision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · KO · R2
Uros MedicKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · 2022-05
L · Sub · R2
Jonathan PearceSubmission
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
W · Dec · R3
Shane YoungDecision
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10