UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Las Vegas, USA
25 Sept 2021
Featherweight
VS
64%
Pearce
36%
Morales
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:31
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pearce
Pearce holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Morales has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pearce has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Pearce has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pearce's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Morales has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pearce
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
71"
Reach
+73"
34+
Age
40
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Pearce
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.8
25.6
47.4
Performance Avg
32.1
42
Quality of Victory
25
56
Momentum Score
45
Pearce
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.4
51%
Strike Accuracy
39%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Pearce
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pearce
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
7/15 fights
Pearce
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Pearce
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pearce
Morales
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
PearceMorales
Strike Zones
Pearce
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedMorales
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pearce targets the head (100% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pearce absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pearce
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0
Pearce · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Morales · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Pearce · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Pat SabatiniRating 2.5Submission
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L · Dec · R3
David OnamaRating 6.3Decision
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L · Sub · R2
Joanderson BritoRating 4.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · KO · R2
Makwan AmirkhaniRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
Morales · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Chris DuncanRating 6.8Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · KO · R2
Uros MedicRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · 2022-05
L · Sub · R2
Jonathan PearceRating 3.2Submission
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
W · Dec · R3
Shane YoungRating 4.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5Decision
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