UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Women's Flyweight
VS
49%
Maverick
51%
Cachoeira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:11
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cachoeira
This is a genuine toss-up — Maverick at 49% vs Cachoeira at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Cachoeira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Striking split: Cachoeira throws more volume but Maverick connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cachoeira has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Maverick
Cachoeira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'7"
65"
Reach
65"
28+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Maverick
Cachoeira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.8
54.7
45.4
Performance Avg
46.6
31
Quality of Victory
52
73
Momentum Score
82
Maverick
Cachoeira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.3
47%
Strike Accuracy
46%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
3
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance3
1Clinch0
5Ground1
Maverick
Cachoeira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Maverick
Cachoeira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
92
24
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/23 fights
Chin rating based on
14/21 fights
Maverick
Cachoeira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
82
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
Maverick
Cachoeira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Maverick
Cachoeira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.8
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.4
MaverickCachoeira
Strike Zones
Maverick
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedCachoeira
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Maverick targets the head (78% of attacks) — Cachoeira absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Cachoeira targets the head (75% of attacks) — Maverick absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Maverick
RND
Cachoeira
0/0R00/0
Maverick · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Cachoeira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Maverick · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rose NamajunasRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jamey-Lyn HorthRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Dione BarbosaRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Andrea LeeRating 4.9Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Sub · R3
Priscila CachoeiraRating 6.5Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Cachoeira · Last 5
Upcoming
Chelsea ChandlerUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Klaudia SygulaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Joselyne EdwardsRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Josiane NunesRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
L · Sub · R3
Jasmine JasudaviciusRating 4.9Submission
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01

