UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
1 Feb 2025
Featherweight
VS
68%
Grad
32%
Alexander
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:22
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Grad
Grad holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Alexander has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Grad has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Striking split: Alexander throws more volume but Grad connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Alexander has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Grad
Alexander
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+73"
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Grad
Alexander
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.5
25.3
46.3
Performance Avg
25.0
55
Quality of Victory
25
52
Momentum Score
28
Grad
Alexander
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.4
65%
Strike Accuracy
59%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
37
Head
9
1
Body
6
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
5Distance18
2Clinch1
34Ground0
Grad
Alexander
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Grad
Alexander
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
44
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/19 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Grad
Alexander
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
28
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Grad
Alexander
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Grad
Alexander
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
GradAlexander
Strike Zones
Grad
Attacking
41 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedAlexander
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
41 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Grad targets the head (90% of attacks) — Alexander absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Alexander targets the head (47% of attacks) — Grad absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Grad
RND
Alexander
0/0R00/0
Grad · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Alexander · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.4WinLossTrend
Grad · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Luke RileyRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Muhammad NaimovRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
W · KO · R2
Lucas AlexanderRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
Alexander · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Bogdan GradRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · KO · R1
Jeka SaragihRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Steven PetersonRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · Sub · R1
Joanderson BritoRating 3.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10