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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Elmont, USA
16 Jul 2022
Featherweight
VS
48%
Ortega
52%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:11
Brian
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16 – 5
5'8"69" reachSwitch35 yrs2-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 62
Yair
Yair Rodriguez
"El Pantera"
21 – 6
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'11"
CFR 66
★ Official Result
Yair RodriguezwinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:11
def. Brian Ortega · UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rodriguez
→
Actual result
Rodriguez wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Ortega at 48% vs Rodriguez at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Rodriguez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Rodriguez has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
OrtegaRodriguez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ortega
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
+71"
35
Age
+33
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Ortega
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.1
66.4
53.7
Performance Avg
60.2
48
Quality of Victory
51
80
Momentum Score
100
Ortega
Rodriguez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
1.5
40%
Strike Accuracy
48%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
18
3
Body
0
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
15Distance21
7Clinch1
0Ground1
Ortega
Rodriguez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ortega
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
62
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/21 fights
Chin rating based on
16/27 fights
Ortega
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Ortega
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
46%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
4
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ortega
Rodriguez
Striking5.0 / 5.1Volume2.2 / 5.8Grappling4.3 / 2.0Wrestling3.0 / 1.4Submission5.0 / 0.9Pressure8.0 / 5.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.1
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
Ortega
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Ortega
Attacking
18HEAD3BODY1LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD0BODY5LEGS23 absorbed
Rodriguez
Attacking
18HEAD0BODY5LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD3BODY1LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ortega targets the head (82% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (78% of attacks) — Ortega absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ortega
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0

Ortega · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5W5.5W6.0W6.3W5.7W5.0W6.2L5.0W7.0L3.1L6.8W6.8L6.5L2015-062017-122021-092025-08
WinLossTrend

Rodriguez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.4W5.9W4.7W5.1W4.8L6.0W5.0W6.6L6.4W5.2W4.2L4.1L4.5W2014-112016-082019-102023-072025-04
WinLossTrend

Ortega · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Yair RodriguezRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09

Rodriguez · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Patricio PitbullRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Sub · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 4.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R3
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
W · Sub · R2
Josh EmmettRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
W · KO · R1
Brian OrtegaRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07

News & Media

Brian Ortega · Yair Rodriguez
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