UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen
Boston, USA
17 Aug 2013
Bantamweight
VS
55%
Faber
45%
Alcantara
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Faber
This is a genuine toss-up — Faber at 55% vs Alcantara at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Alcantara has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Faber's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alcantara has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Faber
Alcantara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
67"
Reach
+71"
47
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Faber
Alcantara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.8
16.9
49.4
Performance Avg
48.0
42
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
49
Faber
Alcantara
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.2
46%
Strike Accuracy
46%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
12Ground0
Faber
Alcantara
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Faber
Alcantara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
56
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/46 fights
Chin rating based on
18/45 fights
Faber
Alcantara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
49
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Faber
Alcantara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
6
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Faber
Alcantara
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
5.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
FaberAlcantara
Strike Zones
Faber
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedAlcantara
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Faber targets the head (100% of attacks) — Alcantara absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Alcantara targets the head (100% of attacks) — Faber absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Faber
RND
Alcantara
0/0R00/0
Faber · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Alcantara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Faber · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Petr YanRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
W · KO · R1
Ricky SimonRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
W · Dec · R3
Brad PickettRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Jimmie RiveraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09
L · Dec · R5
Dominick CruzRating 5.5Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
Alcantara · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · KO · R1
Joe SotoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Sub · R1
Brian KelleherRating 1.8Submission
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Luke SandersRating 5.2Submission
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03