UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Tampa, USA
14 Dec 2024
Featherweight
VS
44%
Swanson
56%
Quarantillo
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:36
Cub
Cub Swanson
31 – 14
5'8"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 46
Billy
Billy Quarantillo
18 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'10"
CFR 58

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Quarantillo

This is a genuine toss-up — Swanson at 44% vs Quarantillo at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Quarantillo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Swanson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Quarantillo has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Swanson
Quarantillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
70"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Swanson
Quarantillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.5
58.1
48.8
Performance Avg
47.3
40
Quality of Victory
42
56
Momentum Score
100
Swanson
Quarantillo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
2.5
56%
Strike Accuracy
57%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
8 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
12
2
Body
8
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
20Distance22
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Swanson
Quarantillo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Swanson
Quarantillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
40
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/45 fights
Chin rating based on
11/25 fights
Swanson
Quarantillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Swanson
Quarantillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
67%
8
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Swanson
Quarantillo
Striking6.2 / 6.1Volume5.2 / 3.8Grappling1.2 / 2.1Wrestling0.8 / 1.5Submission0.0 / 1.7Pressure5.3 / 6.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Swanson
Strike Zones
Quarantillo
Swanson
Attacking
16HEAD2BODY2LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD8BODY2LEGS22 absorbed
Quarantillo
Attacking
12HEAD8BODY2LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD2BODY2LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Swanson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Quarantillo absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Quarantillo targets the head (55% of attacks) — Swanson absorbs 55% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Swanson
RND
Quarantillo
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Swanson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L5.2W5.2W6.4W5.8W5.5W5.0W4.0L5.1L4.5W4.5W6.3W4.5W3.5L5.5L2.3L5.5L5.3W6.1W2.5L5.5W3.3L4.6W6.2L6.7W5.7W2011-112014-112018-042022-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Quarantillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.2W4.5W5.6W5.5L5.7W5.5L6.1W2.0L4.8W3.8L4.5L2019-122020-122022-122024-032024-12
WinLossTrend

Swanson · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Nate LandwehrRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Hakeem DawoduRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Jonathan MartinezRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10

Quarantillo · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Cub SwansonRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Sub · R2
Youssef ZalalRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Edson BarbozaRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12

News & Media

Cub Swanson · Billy Quarantillo
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