METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Tampa, USA
14 Dec 2024
Featherweight
VS
46%
Swanson
54%
Quarantillo
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:36
★ Official Result
Cub SwansonwinsKO/TKOR3 · 1:36
def. Billy Quarantillo · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Quarantillo
→
Actual result
Swanson wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Swanson at 46% vs Quarantillo at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Swanson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Quarantillo has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SwansonQuarantillo
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Swanson
Quarantillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
70"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Swanson
Quarantillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.5
52.6
48.8
Performance Avg
45.5
40
Quality of Victory
42
56
Momentum Score
78
Swanson
Quarantillo
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.2
/ 10
6.0
/ 10
5.3
Style: Pressure
6.2
5.2
Style: Volume
3.7
8 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
12
2
Body
8
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
20Distance22
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Swanson
Quarantillo
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Swanson
Quarantillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
38
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/45 fights
Chin rating based on
12/25 fights
Swanson
Quarantillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
78
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Swanson
Quarantillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
67%
8
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Swanson
Quarantillo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
SwansonQuarantillo
Strike Zones
Swanson
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedQuarantillo
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Swanson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Quarantillo absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Quarantillo targets the head (55% of attacks) — Swanson absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Swanson
RND
Quarantillo
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Swanson · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Nate LandwehrKO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Billy QuarantilloKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliDecision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Hakeem DawoduDecision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Jonathan MartinezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
Quarantillo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Diego FerreiraDecision
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · 2026-08
L · KO · R3
Cub SwansonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Sub · R2
Youssef ZalalSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Edson BarbozaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04