UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
London, United Kingdom
16 Feb 2013
Welterweight
VS
78%
Nelson
22%
Santiago
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nelson
Nelson is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Santiago has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Santiago throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Santiago has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nelson
Santiago
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
+75"
37+
Age
45
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Santiago
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
16.3
52.8
Performance Avg
42.7
46
Quality of Victory
60
61
Momentum Score
39
Nelson
Santiago
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.9
69%
Strike Accuracy
37%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
14
2
Body
7
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance13
3Clinch10
0Ground0
Nelson
Santiago
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
4.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nelson
Santiago
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
30
Moderate
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/25 fights
Chin rating based on
6/37 fights
Nelson
Santiago
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
39
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
Nelson
Santiago
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
8
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Santiago
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
6.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
4.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
8.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.3
NelsonSantiago
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedSantiago
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (64% of attacks) — Santiago absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Santiago targets the head (61% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 61% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Santiago
0/0R00/0
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Santiago · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
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W · Sub · R1
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W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
Santiago · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 6.6Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
L · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · 2011-10
L · KO · R2
Brian StannRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · 2011-05
L · KO · R3
Alan BelcherRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sanchez vs Riggs · 2006-12
L · KO · R2
Chris LebenRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night 6 · 2006-08