UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie
Busan, South Korea
21 Dec 2019
Bantamweight
VS
45%
Barcelos
55%
Nurmagomedov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nurmagomedov
This is a genuine toss-up — Barcelos at 45% vs Nurmagomedov at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nurmagomedov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Barcelos throws more volume but Nurmagomedov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Barcelos
Nurmagomedov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
67"
Reach
+70"
39
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barcelos
Nurmagomedov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.6
63.8
49.8
Performance Avg
53.5
34
Quality of Victory
47
63
Momentum Score
87
Barcelos
Nurmagomedov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.2
55%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
7
3
Body
3
3
Leg
6
RangeRange
6Distance15
5Clinch1
2Ground0
Barcelos
Nurmagomedov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.0
/ 10
4.1
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
4.3
2
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barcelos
Nurmagomedov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
92
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
11/23 fights
Barcelos
Nurmagomedov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
87
5-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Barcelos
Nurmagomedov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
71%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
3
7
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barcelos
Nurmagomedov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
BarcelosNurmagomedov
Strike Zones
Barcelos
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedNurmagomedov
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barcelos targets the head (54% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (44% of attacks) — Barcelos absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barcelos
RND
Nurmagomedov
0/0R00/0
Barcelos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
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W · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
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