★ Championship Bout · Heavyweight
UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar
Las Vegas, USA
15 Nov 2008
Heavyweight
VS
53%
Lesnar
47%
Couture
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:07
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lesnar
This is a genuine toss-up — Lesnar at 53% vs Couture at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Lesnar has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Lesnar has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lesnar's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Couture has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lesnar
Couture
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
81"+
Reach
75"
48+
Age
62
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lesnar
Couture
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.6
20.6
69.0
Performance Avg
62.4
77
Quality of Victory
60
66
Momentum Score
72
Lesnar
Couture
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
0.9
70%
Strike Accuracy
61%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
4
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance2
4Clinch3
12Ground0
Lesnar
Couture
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lesnar
Couture
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
6
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8 fights
Chin rating based on
24/30 fights
Lesnar
Couture
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
72
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Lesnar
Couture
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
63%
2
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lesnar
Couture
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.1
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
LesnarCouture
Strike Zones
Lesnar
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedCouture
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lesnar targets the head (90% of attacks) — Couture absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Couture targets the head (80% of attacks) — Lesnar absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lesnar
RND
Couture
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lesnar · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Couture · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Lesnar · Last 5
Upcoming
Mark HuntUFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
L · KO · R1
Alistair OvereemRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
L · KO · R1
Cain VelasquezRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10
W · Sub · R2
Shane CarwinRating 5.1Submission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · KO · R2
Frank MirRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 100 · 2009-07
Couture · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Lyoto MachidaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
W · Sub · R1
James ToneyRating 5Submission
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Mark ColemanRating 5.2Submission
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
W · Dec · R3
Brandon VeraRating 4.5Decision
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
L · Dec · R3
Antonio Rodrigo NogueiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08