UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
Las Vegas, USA
21 Aug 2021
Lightweight
VS
55%
Pichel
45%
Hubbard
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pichel
This is a genuine toss-up — Pichel at 55% vs Hubbard at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Hubbard throws more volume but Pichel connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pichel's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hubbard has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pichel
Hubbard
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
72"+
Reach
71"
43
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pichel
Hubbard
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.5
31.7
41.3
Performance Avg
28.7
30
Quality of Victory
26
40
Momentum Score
41
Pichel
Hubbard
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
46%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
10
3
Body
4
7
Leg
1
RangeRange
15Distance13
6Clinch1
2Ground1
Pichel
Hubbard
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pichel
Hubbard
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
64
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/19 fights
Chin rating based on
12/27 fights
Pichel
Hubbard
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
41
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Pichel
Hubbard
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pichel
Hubbard
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
8.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
PichelHubbard
Strike Zones
Pichel
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedHubbard
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pichel targets the head (57% of attacks) — Hubbard absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Hubbard targets the head (67% of attacks) — Pichel absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pichel
RND
Hubbard
0/0R00/0
Pichel · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Hubbard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Pichel · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Ismael BonfimRating 5.9Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Mark MadsenRating 5.7Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
Hubbard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
RongzhuRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
MarQuel MederosRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Michal FiglakRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Sub · R2
Kurt HolobaughRating 2.8Submission
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08