UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai
Las Vegas, USA
5 Sept 2020
Featherweight
VS
95%
Kelleher
5%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 0:39
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kelleher
Kelleher is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kelleher has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
Kelleher has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Kelleher's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kelleher
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
66"
Reach
+70"
39
Age
+38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Kelleher
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.8
2.1
44.5
Performance Avg
0.0
43
Quality of Victory
0
61
Momentum Score
0
Kelleher
Rodriguez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
16%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
0
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Kelleher
Rodriguez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kelleher
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
76
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/40 fights
Chin rating based on
2/24 fights
Kelleher
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
Kelleher
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kelleher
Rodriguez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
KelleherRodriguez
Strike Zones
Kelleher
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedRodriguez
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kelleher targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kelleher
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0
Kelleher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Rodriguez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.5WinLossTrend
Kelleher · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonRating 1.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovRating 2.8Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
Rodriguez · Last 2
L · Sub · R2
Rani YahyaRating 3.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
L · Sub · R1
Brian KelleherRating 1.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09