UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Aug 2025
Middleweight
VS
44%
Anders
56%
Duncan
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:53
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Duncan
This is a genuine toss-up — Anders at 44% vs Duncan at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Duncan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Anders's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Anders
Duncan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
75"
Reach
+79"
39
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Anders
Duncan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.9
64.8
45.4
Performance Avg
59.8
41
Quality of Victory
48
79
Momentum Score
72
Anders
Duncan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.2
53%
Strike Accuracy
63%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
9
4
Body
3
1
Leg
12
RangeRange
4Distance20
3Clinch3
0Ground1
Anders
Duncan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Anders
Duncan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/27 fights
Chin rating based on
9/16 fights
Anders
Duncan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
72
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Anders
Duncan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
71%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Anders
Duncan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.7
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
AndersDuncan
Strike Zones
Anders
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedDuncan
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Anders targets the body (57% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Duncan targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Anders absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Anders
RND
Duncan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Anders · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Duncan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Anders · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Christian Leroy DuncanRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · KO · R2
Chris WeidmanRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Jamie PickettRating 4.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 5.5Decision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
Duncan · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R2
Marco TulioRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Andrey PulyaevRating 5.6Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Gregory RodriguesRating 7.1Decision
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