UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
Stockholm, Sweden
4 Oct 2014
Featherweight
VS
82%
Tukhugov
18%
Chavez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:21
ZT
Zubaira Tukhugov
"Warrior"
20 – 6
5'8"68" reachOrthodox35 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 44
EC
Ernest Chavez
"EJ"
10 – 2
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'8"
CFR 10

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tukhugov

Tukhugov is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Tukhugov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Tukhugov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Chavez has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tukhugov
Chavez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
68"
Reach
+70"
35+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tukhugov
Chavez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.4
10.0
48.4
Performance Avg
28.3
39
Quality of Victory
25
92
Momentum Score
27
Tukhugov
Chavez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.2
44%
Strike Accuracy
37%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
34
Head
9
5
Body
0
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
27Distance12
8Clinch0
5Ground0
Tukhugov
Chavez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tukhugov
Chavez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
66
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/26 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Tukhugov
Chavez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
92
27
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Tukhugov
Chavez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tukhugov
Chavez
Striking5.3 / 0.7Volume6.0 / 8.7Grappling1.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.0 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.7 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Tukhugov
Strike Zones
Chavez
Tukhugov
Attacking
34HEAD5BODY1LEGS40 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY3LEGS12 absorbed
Chavez
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY3LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
34HEAD5BODY1LEGS40 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tukhugov targets the head (85% of attacks) — Chavez absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Chavez targets the head (75% of attacks) — Tukhugov absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tukhugov
RND
Chavez
0/0R00/0

Tukhugov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.7W5.0W4.5W6.3L5.0W5.6L4.6W6.3L2014-022015-122020-022021-102023-02
WinLossTrend

Chavez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0104.5W4.0L2.0L2014-022014-052014-10
WinLossTrend

Tukhugov · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Elves BrenerRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
W · Dec · R3
Ricardo RamosRating 4.6
Decision
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Hakeem DawoduRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Kevin AguilarRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · 2020-02
Upcoming
Lerone Murphy
Decision
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09

Chavez · Last 3

L · KO · R1
Zubaira TukhugovRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
L · Sub · R3
Elias SilverioRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Yosdenis CedenoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02

News & Media

Zubaira Tukhugov · Ernest Chavez
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