UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Saint Petersburg, Russia
20 Apr 2019
Lightweight
VS
28%
Mustafaev
72%
Fiziev
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:26
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Fiziev
Fiziev is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Mustafaev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Fiziev throws more volume but Mustafaev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Fiziev has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Mustafaev
Fiziev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
71"
Reach
71"
37
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Mustafaev
Fiziev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
54.2
53.5
Performance Avg
45.6
49
Quality of Victory
37
65
Momentum Score
100
Mustafaev
Fiziev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.6
59%
Strike Accuracy
56%
7.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
0
1
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Mustafaev
Fiziev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mustafaev
Fiziev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
30
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/18 fights
Chin rating based on
13/18 fights
Mustafaev
Fiziev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
100
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Mustafaev
Fiziev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
43%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mustafaev
Fiziev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
MustafaevFiziev
Strike Zones
Mustafaev
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedFiziev
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mustafaev targets the head (70% of attacks) — Fiziev absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Fiziev targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Mustafaev absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mustafaev
RND
Fiziev
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Mustafaev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Fiziev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Mustafaev · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Brad RiddellRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · 2020-02
W · KO · R1
Rafael FizievRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
L · Sub · R2
Kevin LeeRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Joe ProctorRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · 2015-12
W · R2
Piotr HallmannRating 4.2UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · 2015-06
Fiziev · Last 5
Upcoming
Manuel TorresUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Mauricio RuffyRating 4.4KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Ignacio BahamondesRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09