METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
Ottawa, Canada
18 Jun 2016
Welterweight
VS
28%
MacDonald
72%
Thompson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Stephen ThompsonwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Rory MacDonald · UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Thompson
→
Actual result
Thompson wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
Thompson is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
MacDonald's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Thompson has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MacDonaldThompson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
MacDonald
Thompson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
76"+
Reach
75"
37+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
MacDonald
Thompson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
46.3
51.3
Performance Avg
48.9
39
Quality of Victory
43
61
Momentum Score
45
MacDonald
Thompson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.7
/ 10
6.1
/ 10
5.2
Style: Pressure
5.2
5.8
Style: Volume
5.1
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
6 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
30
4
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
18Distance31
2Clinch0
0Ground3
MacDonald
Thompson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.2
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
MacDonald
Thompson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
32
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/23 fights
Chin rating based on
22/26 fights
MacDonald
Thompson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
MacDonald
Thompson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
MacDonald
Thompson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
MacDonaldThompson
Strike Zones
MacDonald
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedThompson
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯MacDonald targets the head (80% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Thompson targets the head (88% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
MacDonald
RND
Thompson
0/0R00/0
MacDonald · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Stephen ThompsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · KO · R5
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W · KO · R3
Tarec SaffiedineKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Tyron WoodleyDecision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaDecision
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02
Thompson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimDecision
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L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyKO/TKO
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L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovSubmission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadDecision
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