METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
Ottawa, Canada
18 Jun 2016
Welterweight
VS
28%
MacDonald
72%
Thompson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
RM
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
19 – 4
6'0"76" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 18
Stephen
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
17 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 46
★ Official Result
Stephen ThompsonwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Rory MacDonald · UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Thompson
→
Actual result
Thompson wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis

Thompson is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Thompson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

MacDonald's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Thompson has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
MacDonaldThompson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
MacDonald
Thompson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
76"+
Reach
75"
36+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
MacDonald
Thompson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
46.3
51.3
Performance Avg
48.9
39
Quality of Victory
43
61
Momentum Score
45
MacDonald
Thompson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
1.7
45%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
30
4
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
18Distance31
2Clinch0
0Ground3
MacDonald
Thompson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.2
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
MacDonald
Thompson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
32
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/23 fights
Chin rating based on
22/26 fights
MacDonald
Thompson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
MacDonald
Thompson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

MacDonald
Thompson
Striking4.7 / 6.1Volume5.8 / 5.1Grappling2.2 / 1.2Wrestling1.6 / 0.8Submission1.1 / 0.0Pressure5.2 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
MacDonald
Strike Zones
Thompson
MacDonald
Attacking
16HEAD4BODY0LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
30HEAD2BODY2LEGS34 absorbed
Thompson
Attacking
30HEAD2BODY2LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD4BODY0LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯MacDonald targets the head (80% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Thompson targets the head (88% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 88% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

MacDonald
RND
Thompson
0/0R00/0

MacDonald · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W4.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.8L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.3L6.1L2010-012012-042014-022016-06
WinLossTrend

Thompson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.0W5.9L4.5W5.2W5.9W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2.1L6.0W5.5W5.7L6.6L6.0W4.8L5.2L7.2L2012-022015-072019-032023-122025-07
WinLossTrend

MacDonald · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · KO · R5
Robbie LawlerRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tyron WoodleyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02

Thompson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 4.8
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

News & Media

Rory MacDonald · Stephen Thompson
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