UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
Ottawa, Canada
18 Jun 2016
Welterweight
VS
28%
MacDonald
72%
Thompson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Thompson
Thompson is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Thompson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
MacDonald's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Thompson has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
MacDonald
Thompson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
76"+
Reach
75"
36+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
MacDonald
Thompson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
46.3
51.3
Performance Avg
48.9
39
Quality of Victory
43
61
Momentum Score
45
MacDonald
Thompson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.7
45%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
30
4
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
18Distance31
2Clinch0
0Ground3
MacDonald
Thompson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
MacDonald
Thompson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
32
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/23 fights
Chin rating based on
22/26 fights
MacDonald
Thompson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
MacDonald
Thompson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
MacDonald
Thompson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
MacDonaldThompson
Strike Zones
MacDonald
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedThompson
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯MacDonald targets the head (80% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Thompson targets the head (88% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
MacDonald
RND
Thompson
0/0R00/0
MacDonald · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Thompson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
MacDonald · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · KO · R5
Robbie LawlerRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tyron WoodleyRating 4.5Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02
Thompson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimRating 7.2Decision
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L · KO · R3
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L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 4.8Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
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