METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
Atlanta, USA
13 Apr 2019
Women's Flyweight
VS
29%
Mueller
71%
Botelho
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Poliana BotelhowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Lauren Mueller · UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Botelho
→
Actual result
Botelho wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Botelho is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Botelho has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MuellerBotelho
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Mueller
Botelho
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'8"
67"
Reach
67"
34+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mueller
Botelho
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.0
24.2
25.0
Performance Avg
39.1
25
Quality of Victory
37
28
Momentum Score
54
Mueller
Botelho
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
0.8
Style: Pressure
3.6
8.5
Style: Volume
6.2
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
5
5
Body
1
4
Leg
4
RangeRange
18Distance10
1Clinch0
1Ground0
Mueller
Botelho
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mueller
Botelho
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/8 fights
Chin rating based on
7/13 fights
Mueller
Botelho
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
54
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Mueller
Botelho
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mueller
Botelho
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
MuellerBotelho
Strike Zones
Mueller
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedBotelho
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mueller targets the head (55% of attacks) — Botelho absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Botelho targets the head (50% of attacks) — Mueller absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mueller
RND
Botelho
0/0R00/0
Mueller · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichDecision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
L · Dec · R3
Poliana BotelhoDecision
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
L · Sub · R1
Wu YananSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · 2018-11
W · Dec · R3
Shana DobsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
Botelho · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Karine SilvaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06
L · Dec · R3
Luana CarolinaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Lauren MuellerDecision
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
L · Sub · R1
Cynthia CalvilloSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · 2018-11