METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
Las Vegas, USA
30 Apr 2022
Featherweight
VS
70%
Elkins
30%
Connelly
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Darren ElkinswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Tristan Connelly · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Elkins
→
Actual result
Elkins wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Elkins is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Elkins has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Risk flags
Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ElkinsConnelly
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Elkins
Connelly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
71"+
Reach
68"
42
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Elkins
Connelly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.3
18.6
45.5
Performance Avg
28.3
35
Quality of Victory
25
66
Momentum Score
40
Elkins
Connelly
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
4.4
Style: Pressure
1.0
6.3
Style: Volume
8.7
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
19
6
Body
4
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
12Distance14
16Clinch11
0Ground0
Elkins
Connelly
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.6
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Elkins
Connelly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
96
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
5
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
31/41 fights
Chin rating based on
3/22 fights
Elkins
Connelly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Elkins
Connelly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Elkins
Connelly
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
ElkinsConnelly
Strike Zones
Elkins
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedConnelly
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (79% of attacks) — Connelly absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Connelly targets the head (76% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Elkins
RND
Connelly
0/0R00/0
Elkins · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Yadier del ValleKO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaKO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceDecision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
Connelly · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniDecision
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
W · Dec · R3
Michel PereiraDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09