UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
Las Vegas, USA
30 Apr 2022
Featherweight
VS
71%
Elkins
29%
Connelly
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Darren
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29 – 12
5'10"71" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 45
TC
Tristan Connelly
"Boondock"
14 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'10"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elkins

Elkins is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Elkins has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Connelly has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Elkins
Connelly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
71"+
Reach
68"
42
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Elkins
Connelly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.7
18.6
46.3
Performance Avg
28.3
35
Quality of Victory
25
66
Momentum Score
40
Elkins
Connelly
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.5
38%
Strike Accuracy
57%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
19
6
Body
4
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
12Distance14
16Clinch11
0Ground0
Elkins
Connelly
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elkins
Connelly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/41 fights
Chin rating based on
3/22 fights
Elkins
Connelly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
40
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Elkins
Connelly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Elkins
Connelly
Striking3.4 / 0.7Volume6.3 / 8.7Grappling2.8 / 2.4Wrestling1.9 / 1.7Submission1.6 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Elkins
Strike Zones
Connelly
Elkins
Attacking
22HEAD6BODY0LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD4BODY2LEGS25 absorbed
Connelly
Attacking
19HEAD4BODY2LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD6BODY0LEGS28 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (79% of attacks) — Connelly absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Connelly targets the head (76% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 76% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Elkins
RND
Connelly
0/0R00/0

Elkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W2.9L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.3W7.0L4.0L5.5L6.2L5.5W5.2W2.0L4.5W6.0L5.5W5.4W1.7L2010-032013-082017-072021-122025-04
WinLossTrend

Connelly · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0105.1W6.5L6.0L2019-092021-042022-04
WinLossTrend

Elkins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

Connelly · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
W · Dec · R3
Michel PereiraRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09

News & Media

Darren Elkins · Tristan Connelly
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