UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
12 Sept 2020
Women's Flyweight
VS
30%
Modafferi
70%
Lee
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RM
Roxanne Modafferi
"The Happy Warrior"
25 – 21
5'7"69" reachOrthodox43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
Andrea
Andrea Lee
"KGB"
13 – 11
Well-Rounded6-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'6"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lee

Lee is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Lee has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Modafferi
Lee
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
69"
Reach
69"
43
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Modafferi
Lee
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
43.1
34.7
Performance Avg
35.8
36
Quality of Victory
36
15
Momentum Score
53
Modafferi
Lee
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.4
31%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
12
1
Body
6
1
Leg
10
RangeRange
19Distance27
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Modafferi
Lee
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Modafferi
Lee
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
82
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/46 fights
Chin rating based on
14/24 fights
Modafferi
Lee
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Modafferi
Lee
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Modafferi
Lee
Striking3.2 / 2.7Volume6.7 / 5.5Grappling1.8 / 3.0Wrestling1.3 / 2.1Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure2.8 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
2.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
Modafferi
Strike Zones
Lee
Modafferi
Attacking
17HEAD1BODY1LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD6BODY10LEGS28 absorbed
Lee
Attacking
12HEAD6BODY10LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD1BODY1LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Modafferi targets the head (89% of attacks) — Lee absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Lee targets the head (43% of attacks) — Modafferi absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Modafferi
RND
Lee
0/0R00/0

Modafferi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0106.1L5.5L5.2W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5W6.3L4.9W6.2L5.7L6.7L2013-112018-112020-012021-012022-02
WinLossTrend

Lee · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0104.8W4.5W5.5W5.7L6.3L5.5L5.2W5.2W6.2L6.5L7.0L6.3L6.5L6.1L2018-052020-022022-052024-062025-03
WinLossTrend

Modafferi · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Casey O'NeillRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Taila SantosRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Viviane AraujoRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Andrea LeeRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Lauren MurphyRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06

Lee · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Montana De La RosaRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Miranda MaverickRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaRating 7
Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
L · Dec · R3
Maycee BarberRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03

News & Media

Roxanne Modafferi · Andrea Lee
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