UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
Sao Paulo, Brazil
19 Jan 2013
Lightweight
VS
41%
Tavares
59%
Nurmagomedov
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:55
TT
Thiago Tavares
21 – 7
5'7"70" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
KN
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
29 – 0
Well-Rounded13-fight win streak37 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'10"
CFR 26

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nurmagomedov

This is a genuine toss-up — Tavares at 41% vs Nurmagomedov at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Nurmagomedov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Tavares's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Tavares
Nurmagomedov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
70"
41
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tavares
Nurmagomedov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.0
25.9
48.8
Performance Avg
68.2
42
Quality of Victory
47
81
Momentum Score
100
Tavares
Nurmagomedov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
22
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground17
Tavares
Nurmagomedov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tavares
Nurmagomedov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
5
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/28 fights
Chin rating based on
13/29 fights
Tavares
Nurmagomedov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
100
Current form
13-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Tavares
Nurmagomedov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
54%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
5
4
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tavares
Nurmagomedov
Striking2.2 / 3.5Volume4.4 / 5.7Grappling5.0 / 4.2Wrestling3.5 / 2.9Submission5.0 / 3.9Pressure6.0 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Tavares
Strike Zones
Nurmagomedov
Tavares
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD0BODY0LEGS22 absorbed
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
22HEAD0BODY0LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tavares targets the body (50% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tavares
RND
Nurmagomedov
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Tavares · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W5.0W2.8L5.2W4.5W1.5L5.0W5.0W5.4L5.5W3.3L2007-042008-092012-012015-112016-07
WinLossTrend

Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5W4.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.7W5.2W5.6W5.0W4.5W7.3W6.6W6.7W2012-012013-092017-122020-10
WinLossTrend

Tavares · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Dooho ChoiRating 3.3
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
W · Sub · R1
Clay GuidaRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · KO · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Sub · R1
Robert PeraltaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
W · Sub · R1
Justin SalasRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11

Nurmagomedov · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.6
Submission
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Sub · R4
Conor McGregorRating 7.3
Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R5
Al IaquintaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 5
Decision
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · 2017-12

News & Media

Thiago Tavares · Khabib Nurmagomedov
← Back to fights