UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum
Fortaleza, Brazil
11 Mar 2017
Lightweight
VS
47%
Trinaldo
53%
Lee
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:12
FT
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
28 – 9
5'9"70" reachSouthpaw47 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 32
KL
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
18 – 8
Well-Rounded3-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox77" reach5'9"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lee

This is a genuine toss-up — Trinaldo at 47% vs Lee at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Lee throws more volume but Trinaldo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Trinaldo's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lee has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Trinaldo
Lee
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+77"
47
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Trinaldo
Lee
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.7
35.2
48.6
Performance Avg
48.3
35
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
53
Trinaldo
Lee
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
5
4
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance7
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Trinaldo
Lee
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Trinaldo
Lee
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
24
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
13 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/37 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Trinaldo
Lee
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
53
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Trinaldo
Lee
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
55%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
4
12
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Trinaldo
Lee
Striking3.6 / 3.0Volume6.3 / 4.1Grappling2.4 / 3.8Wrestling1.6 / 2.6Submission1.1 / 3.6Pressure4.4 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Trinaldo
Strike Zones
Lee
Trinaldo
Attacking
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Lee
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Trinaldo targets the head (50% of attacks) — Lee absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Lee targets the head (71% of attacks) — Trinaldo absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Trinaldo
RND
Lee
0/0R00/0

Trinaldo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.5L5.2W5.0W2.8L4.5W6.3L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.5W2.8L4.9W5.5L5.2W6.4L5.2W4.5W6.2W6.5L4.5W4.5W6.4L2012-062014-092017-032020-072022-10
WinLossTrend

Lee · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.6L4.5W6.0W5.2W5.2W5.8W3.3L5.0W5.5L3.6L5.0W4.2L6.4L3.1L2014-022015-122017-062019-112023-07
WinLossTrend

Trinaldo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Danny RobertsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · Dec · R3
Dwight GrantRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Muslim SalikhovRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
W · KO · R3
Jai HerbertRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

Lee · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Rinat FakhretdinovRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · KO · R1
Gregor GillespieRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
L · Sub · R4
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05

News & Media

Francisco Trinaldo · Kevin Lee
← Back to fights