UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
Chicago, USA
26 Jan 2013
Featherweight
VS
83%
Guida
17%
Hioki
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
5'7"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 44
HH
Hatsu Hioki
29 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'11"
CFR 9

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guida

Guida is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Guida has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Guida has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hioki has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Guida
Hioki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+73"
44
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Hioki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
9.0
40.7
Performance Avg
30.0
35
Quality of Victory
25
78
Momentum Score
10
Guida
Hioki
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.7
36%
Strike Accuracy
36%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
0
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Guida
Hioki
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Hioki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
8
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
8/39 fights
Guida
Hioki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
10
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Guida
Hioki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guida
Hioki
Striking2.1 / 0.8Volume5.9 / 8.8Grappling3.7 / 2.4Wrestling2.6 / 1.7Submission2.8 / 0.0Pressure4.2 / 1.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.1
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
Guida
Strike Zones
Hioki
Guida
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Hioki
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (75% of attacks) — Hioki absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Hioki targets the head (60% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guida
RND
Hioki
0/0R00/0

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Hioki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W4.5W5.5L6.0L6.0L4.5W4.2L3.6L2011-102012-062013-082014-062015-05
WinLossTrend

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Hioki · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Dan HookerRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · 2015-05
L · Sub · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Ivan MenjivarRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway · 2014-03
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 · 2013-08
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · 2013-01

News & Media

Clay Guida · Hatsu Hioki
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