METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
Chicago, USA
26 Jan 2013
Featherweight
VS
82%
Guida
18%
Hioki
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Clay GuidawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Hatsu Hioki · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guida
→
Actual result
Guida wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Guida is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Guida has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Risk flags
Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hioki has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GuidaHioki
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Guida
Hioki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+73"
44
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Hioki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
9.0
40.7
Performance Avg
30.0
35
Quality of Victory
25
78
Momentum Score
10
Guida
Hioki
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
1.1
5.9
Style: Volume
8.8
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
0
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Guida
Hioki
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.7
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
2.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Guida
Hioki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
8
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
8/39 fights
Guida
Hioki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
10
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Guida
Hioki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guida
Hioki
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.1
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
GuidaHioki
Strike Zones
Guida
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedHioki
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (75% of attacks) — Hioki absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Hioki targets the head (60% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guida
RND
Hioki
0/0R00/0
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
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UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · 2013-01