UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
11 Oct 2025
Flyweight
VS
52%
Filho
48%
Carpenter
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:42
Jafel
Jafel Filho
"Pastor"
17 – 5
5'7"68" reachOrthodox33 yrsSubmission Hunter
CFR 57
Clayton
Clayton Carpenter
8 – 3
Submission Hunter3-fight slide29 yrsOrthodox66" reach5'6"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Filho

This is a genuine toss-up — Filho at 52% vs Carpenter at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Filho has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Filho
Carpenter
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
68"+
Reach
66"
33
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Filho
Carpenter
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.0
52.6
52.4
Performance Avg
47.0
54
Quality of Victory
52
46
Momentum Score
39
Filho
Carpenter
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.2
46%
Strike Accuracy
43%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
2
0
Body
3
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance5
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Filho
Carpenter
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
0.7
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Filho
Carpenter
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/22 fights
Chin rating based on
5/11 fights
Filho
Carpenter
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
39
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Filho
Carpenter
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
2
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Filho
Carpenter
Striking1.0 / 0.8Volume1.0 / 0.8Grappling8.0 / 8.0Wrestling5.6 / 5.6Submission10.0 / 10.0Pressure8.5 / 8.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
Filho
Strike Zones
Carpenter
Filho
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY4LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD3BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Carpenter
Attacking
2HEAD3BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY4LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Filho targets the legs (80% of attacks) — Carpenter absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Carpenter targets the body (43% of attacks) — Filho absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Filho
RND
Carpenter
0/0R00/0

Filho · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.4L5.0W5.8W7.0L5.9W5.6L2023-032023-072024-032025-052025-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Carpenter · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.0W5.4W6.6L2.6L6.4L2023-022024-102025-012025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Filho · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cody DurdenRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Clayton CarpenterRating 5.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Allan NascimentoRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · Sub · R1
Ode OsbourneRating 5.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
W · Sub · R1
Daniel BarezRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07

Carpenter · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jose OchoaRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Jafel FilhoRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Tagir UlanbekovRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R2
Lucas RochaRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R1
Juancamilo RonderosRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02

News & Media

Jafel Filho · Clayton Carpenter
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