UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
Las Vegas, USA
9 Jul 2016
Middleweight
VS
42%
Mousasi
58%
Santos
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:32
GM
Gegard Mousasi
42 – 6
6'2"76" reachOrthodox40 yrs5-fight win streakStriker
CFR 24
TS
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
22 – 11
Knockout Artist2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'2"
CFR 32

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Santos

This is a genuine toss-up — Mousasi at 42% vs Santos at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Mousasi has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Mousasi's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Santos has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Mousasi
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
76"
Reach
76"
40+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mousasi
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.5
32.2
59.2
Performance Avg
54.0
49
Quality of Victory
51
100
Momentum Score
91
Mousasi
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.6
55%
Strike Accuracy
51%
7.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
11 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
3
3
Body
0
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
8Distance4
3Clinch0
10Ground1
Mousasi
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mousasi
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/48 fights
Chin rating based on
24/33 fights
Mousasi
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
91
5-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Mousasi
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
79%
5
KO / TKO Wins
11
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mousasi
Santos
Striking7.1 / 9.0Volume4.2 / 2.9Grappling1.7 / 0.5Wrestling1.2 / 0.4Submission1.1 / 0.0Pressure6.9 / 7.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Mousasi
Strike Zones
Santos
Mousasi
Attacking
16HEAD3BODY2LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY2LEGS5 absorbed
Santos
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY2LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD3BODY2LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mousasi targets the head (76% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the head (60% of attacks) — Mousasi absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mousasi
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Mousasi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.5L5.0W2.8L5.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.0W6.1W2013-042014-092015-092016-102017-04
WinLossTrend

Santos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0101.5L5.0W5.5L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.0W1.5L1.5L5.2W6.3W5.9W6.4W1.5L5.1W6.0W5.2W5.8W7.3L3.1L5.6L5.3W7.0L4.6L2013-082016-052018-022019-072022-08
WinLossTrend

Mousasi · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Chris WeidmanRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
W · KO · R1
Uriah HallRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · KO · R1
Thiago SantosRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Thales LeitesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · 2016-02

Santos · Last 5

L · KO · R4
Jamahal HillRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
W · Dec · R5
Johnny WalkerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Glover TeixeiraRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · 2020-11

News & Media

Gegard Mousasi · Thiago Santos
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