METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Dallas, USA
14 Mar 2015
Heavyweight
VS
51%
Nelson
49%
Overeem
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Alistair OvereemwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Roy Nelson · UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nelson
→
Actual result
Overeem wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 51% vs Overeem at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Overeem has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NelsonOvereem
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nelson
Overeem
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+80"
50
Age
+46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Overeem
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
18.1
55.6
Performance Avg
55.0
61
Quality of Victory
52
26
Momentum Score
56
Nelson
Overeem
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.8
/ 10
8.7
/ 10
7.6
Style: Pressure
7.0
1.8
Style: Volume
3.2
8 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
9 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
7
0
Body
7
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
6Distance18
1Clinch0
0Ground1
Nelson
Overeem
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.3
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
0.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nelson
Overeem
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
8
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.1 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/36 fights
Chin rating based on
20/66 fights
Nelson
Overeem
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
56
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Nelson
Overeem
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
75%
8
KO / TKO Wins
9
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Overeem
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.7
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
NelsonOvereem
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedOvereem
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (86% of attacks) — Overeem absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Overeem targets the head (37% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 37% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Overeem
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovDecision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
Overeem · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
W · KO · R5
Augusto SakaiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09
W · KO · R2
Walt HarrisKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
L · KO · R5
Jairzinho RozenstruikKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · KO · R1
Aleksei OleinikKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04