UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Dallas, USA
14 Mar 2015
Heavyweight
VS
51%
Nelson
49%
Overeem
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RN
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22 – 14
6'0"73" reachOrthodox49 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 19
AO
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
47 – 19
Knockout Artist46 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'4"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nelson

This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 51% vs Overeem at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Overeem has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Nelson's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Overeem has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nelson
Overeem
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+80"
49
Age
+46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Overeem
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
18.1
55.6
Performance Avg
55.0
61
Quality of Victory
52
26
Momentum Score
56
Nelson
Overeem
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.7
40%
Strike Accuracy
73%
9.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.7
8 KOs
KO Finishes
9 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
7
0
Body
7
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
6Distance18
1Clinch0
0Ground1
Nelson
Overeem
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.3
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
0.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nelson
Overeem
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
8
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.1 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/36 fights
Chin rating based on
20/66 fights
Nelson
Overeem
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
56
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Nelson
Overeem
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
75%
8
KO / TKO Wins
9
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nelson
Overeem
Striking9.8 / 8.7Volume1.8 / 3.2Grappling0.3 / 0.6Wrestling0.2 / 0.4Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.6 / 7.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.7
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
Nelson
Strike Zones
Overeem
Nelson
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD7BODY5LEGS19 absorbed
Overeem
Attacking
7HEAD7BODY5LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (86% of attacks) — Overeem absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Overeem targets the head (37% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 37% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nelson
RND
Overeem
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5W5.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.1L5.5L5.5L4.5W6.7L5.2W6.8L2009-122012-022013-102016-022017-04
WinLossTrend

Overeem · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W4.0L1.5L4.5W1.5L5.0W4.5W5.2W5.8W2.6L5.5W4.5W1.9L4.9L6.2W5.0W5.1L5.1W5.7W3.4L2011-122014-122017-032019-042021-02
WinLossTrend

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09

Overeem · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkovRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
W · KO · R5
Augusto SakaiRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09
W · KO · R2
Walt HarrisRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
L · KO · R5
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · KO · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04

News & Media

Roy Nelson · Alistair Overeem
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